Method notes · 5 Nov 2026 · 5 min read
No 4-fold this Saturday: one leg on the board, and why I won't pad it with three coin flips
Only one game on Saturday 7th November's card scored 7.0 or more, so there's no Best 4-fold this weekend. Why padding it with three coin-flip legs would cut it to about 1 in 14 (7%), the free leg in full (Southampton to win at Preston, 67%, 7.6 out of 10, 1.65), and last Saturday's 4-fold leg by leg: 3 from 4, Barrow let us down.
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No 4-fold this Saturday: one leg on the board, and why I won't pad it with three coin flips
Contents
49 pieces3 Nov 2026
Club analysisStockport County form and fixture data: five picks, four winners, and three 4-fold legs that all came inStockport County form and fixture data for 2026/27: five released picks since April, four winners, and three Best 4-fold legs this season that all won. Saturday's 4-fold went 3 from 4 (Barrow drew). 2 in 3 of our picks win (69%).5 min ↗29 Oct 2026
Method notesWhy your acca goes 3 from 4: the maths, our four near misses, and Saturday's 4-fold at about 1 in 5A 4-fold finishes 3 from 4 more often than any other way, about twice as often as it lands. The maths behind it, our four Best 4-folds that all went 3 from 4, what to do about it, and Saturday 31st October's 4-fold: four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 5 (22%), with Boreham Wood v Hartlepool as the free leg.5 min ↗27 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupSaturday's 4-fold went 3 from 4: Barnet let us down, and 5 of our 6 Saturday picks wonSaturday's 4-fold on 24th October 2026 went 3 from 4: Boreham Wood 4-0, Reading 2-1 and Wolves 1-0 won, Barnet drew 1-1 with Oldham. Five of six Saturday picks won, 2 in 3 of our picks win (68%), and the free leg for 31st October is Middlesbrough.5 min ↗24 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupBoreham Wood v AFC Fylde prediction: top of the National League, 63% to win, and the lead leg in today's 4-foldOur Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde prediction for the National League on 24 October 2026: Boreham Wood to win, a 63% win chance, scored 8.2 out of 10 and released at 1.37. The free leg of today's Best 4-fold, which is four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 7 (14%). The numbers, the risks, the last three 4-folds and the record.5 min ↗22 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupSaturday's 4-fold for 24th October: four 3pm legs, about 1 in 7, led by Boreham WoodSaturday's Best 4-fold for 24th October 2026: four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 7 (14%) on our numbers. The free leg in full is Boreham Wood to beat AFC Fylde, 63% win chance, 8.2 out of 10, released at 1.37. Why these legs, why no early kick-offs, and the last three 4-folds leg by leg.5 min ↗20 Oct 2026
Club analysisSouthampton form and fixture data: five picks, three winners, and why West Ham away is off our boardSouthampton form and fixture data for 2026/27: five released picks since April, three winners, both losers home draws. Unbeaten at home, one away win, and West Ham away scores 5.4. 2 in 3 of our picks win (67%), and tonight's free leg is Huddersfield.5 min ↗19 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupSaturday's 4-fold went 3 from 4: Southampton let us down, and 2 in 3 of our picks winSaturday's 4-fold on 17th October 2026 went 3 from 4: Salford 2-1, Stockport 1-0 and Wrexham 4-1 won, Southampton drew 0-0 with Bolton. Four of six Saturday picks won, 2 in 3 of our picks win (67%), and Tuesday's free leg is Huddersfield.5 min ↗17 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupSalford City v Crawley Town prediction: 1st v 24th, Salford to win at 61%, and the lead leg in today's 4-foldOur Salford City v Crawley Town prediction for League Two on 17 October 2026: Salford to win, a 61% win chance, scored 7.9 out of 10 and released at 1.42. The free leg of today's Best 4-fold, which is four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 6 (17%). The numbers, the risks, last week's 4-fold and the record.5 min ↗15 Oct 2026
Method notesHow many legs should your acca have? Why we stop at four, and Saturday's 4-fold is about 1 in 6Every leg you add to an acca cuts your chance of getting paid. What each extra leg does, from 65% on one leg to 4.9% on seven, why the Best 4-fold stops at four and leaves out early kick-offs, and Saturday 17th October's 4-fold: four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 6 (17%), with Salford City v Crawley Town as the free leg.5 min ↗13 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupSaturday's 4-fold went 3 from 4: Leicester let us down, and the record is now 47 from 70Saturday's 4-fold on 10 October 2026 went 3 from 4: Halifax 4-1, Worthing 5-0 and Stockport 3-1 won, Leicester lost 3-1 to Peterborough. Six of eight weekend picks won and the record is now 47 from 70 since April.5 min ↗10 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupHalifax v Gateshead prediction: Halifax to win, 66% chance, the free leg in today's 4-foldOur Halifax v Gateshead prediction for the National League on 10 October 2026: Halifax to win, a 66% win chance, scored 7.8 out of 10 and released at 1.44. The free leg of today's Best 4-fold, which is four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 5 (18%). The numbers, the risks and the record.5 min ↗8 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupSaturday's 4-fold for 10th October: four 3pm legs, about 1 in 5, led by HalifaxSaturday's Best 4-fold for 10th October 2026: four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 5 (18%) on our numbers. The free leg in full is Halifax to beat Gateshead, 66% win chance, 7.8 out of 10, released at 1.44. Why these legs, why no early kick-offs, and the record.5 min ↗6 Oct 2026
Club analysisGateshead form and fixture data: four picks against them, four winners, 2026/27Gateshead form and fixture data from an 8-factor conviction model. Four released picks against them since 31 August 2026, four winners, £40 of stakes returning £66.10. Record 41 from 62 since 14 April 2026. Updated 6 October 2026.6 min ↗3 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupGrimsby v Shrewsbury prediction: 7.4 out of 10, back Grimsby at 1.70Our Grimsby v Shrewsbury prediction for League Two on 3 October 2026: Grimsby to win, scored 7.4 out of 10 and priced at 1.70. Every factor behind the score, what cuts against it, the rest of today's board and last week's results.5 min ↗1 Oct 2026
Method notesHow to bet around the draw in lower league football: half our losing picks finished level118 of the 408 lower league fixtures we have settled this season finished level, which is 29%. Ten of our 20 losing picks were draws. Here is why the draw is so hard to call, every drawn pick with its score and price, and three ways to handle it.5 min ↗29 Sept 2026
Weekly roundupWeekend results: 2 from 5, and the record is now 38 from 57Two of our five picks won on Saturday 26 September 2026: Bristol Rovers 1-0 Exeter City at 1.70 and Boreham Wood 3-0 at Solihull Moors at 1.55. Southend, Plymouth and Grimsby lost. Record now 38 from 57 since April.5 min ↗26 Sept 2026
Club analysisHarrogate Town form and fixture data: four picks, four winners, 2026/27Harrogate Town form and fixture data from an 8-factor conviction model. Four released picks since 31 August 2026, four winners, £40 of stakes returning £78.30. Record 38 from 57 since 14 April 2026. Updated 28 September 2026.6 min ↗24 Sept 2026
Method notesOdds explained for lower league football: what a price of 1.55 actually meansA decimal price is a probability with the bookmaker margin on top. Our 52 released picks since 14 April 2026 won 36 times, which is 69%, against prices that implied 58%. Here is how to read a price, what value means, and what the gap has been worth by price band.5 min ↗19 Sept 2026
Weekly roundupMidweek results: 4 from 5, and the record is now 34 from 48Four of our five midweek picks landed between 15 and 18 September 2026: Southend 3-1 Tamworth at 1.58, Kidderminster 1-0 Gateshead at 1.65, Boreham Wood 2-1 at Scunthorpe at 1.78, Yeovil 4-1 Solihull Moors at 2.07. Middlesbrough drew 2-2 with Millwall. Record now 34 from 48 since April.5 min ↗17 Sept 2026
Method notesWhat an acca actually pays: £110 on our matchday accas returned £253Eleven matchday accas from our released board since 14 April 2026. Five landed. £110 staked returned £253.00, while the same 47 picks as £10 singles turned £470 into £563.20. Record 33 from 47, which is 70%.5 min ↗15 Sept 2026
Weekly roundupWeekend results: 3 from 4, and the record is now 30 from 43Three of our four picks landed on 11 and 12 September 2026: West Ham 6-0 Wrexham at 1.62, Harrogate 3-1 Tamworth at 1.79, Swansea 3-1 Burnley at 2.14. Boreham Wood drew at Eastleigh. Record now 30 from 43 since April.4 min ↗2 Sept 2026
Club analysisBoreham Wood form and fixture data: every score the model has given them, 2026/27Boreham Wood form and fixture data from an 8-factor conviction model. 8 fixtures scored this season, 5 played, 4 released, more than any other club on the site. As at 2 September 2026.7 min ↗2 Sept 2026
Club analysisBristol Rovers form and fixture data: every score the model has given them, 2026/27Bristol Rovers form and fixture data from an 8-factor conviction model. 6 fixtures scored this season, 4 played, 2 released, including the only away call the model has made in League Two. As at 2 September 2026.6 min ↗2 Sept 2026
Club analysisHuddersfield form and fixture data: every score the model has given them, 2026/27Huddersfield form and fixture data from an 8-factor conviction model. 6 fixtures scored this season, 4 played, 2 released, including an away call at Mansfield. As at 3 September 2026.6 min ↗2 Sept 2026
Club analysisSwansea form and fixture data: every score the model has given them, 2026/27Swansea form and fixture data from an 8-factor conviction model. 7 fixtures scored this season, 4 played, 0 released, and the only Swansea fixture carrying all eight factors. As at 2 September 2026.6 min ↗2 Sept 2026
Method notesThe released board: every pick Lower League Analyst has released this seasonEvery pick Lower League Analyst has released this season, updated weekly. 19 released from 309 scored as at 10 September 2026, 17 settled and 8 landed. Two picks are live for 12 September and five fixtures cleared the score and were withheld.7 min ↗20 Aug 2026
Division analysisNational League predictions and analysis: what the model has scored this seasonThe National League reaches our four-game threshold first, and it is the division where our released record is best and smallest. Eight released picks, eight landed, 14 to 25 April 2026, on a sample far too small to prove anything. Here is what the model has scored this season, what it has held back, and how the five withheld high scores that have been played actually finished.8 min ↗20 Aug 2026
Method notesWhy the board is empty: 257 fixtures scored, none releasedThe model has scored 257 fixtures this season and released none of them. One scored a perfect 10.0 as at 27 August 2026 and we published nothing, and it has since been played and missed, against a settled-archive maximum of 8.2. Five of the threshold-clearers have now been played and two landed. Here is why the board is empty, and who will give you a number today if you want one.8 min ↗9 Aug 2026
Weekly roundupNational League week one results 2026/27: every result, and the model scores we never publishedAll 12 National League results from Saturday 8 August 2026, published alongside the conviction scores our model generated and never showed to anyone. The result it leaned towards came in 5 times from 12. Here is why none of the 12 was released, and why a head-to-head-only score is not a conviction score.8 min ↗6 Aug 2026
Weekly roundupWeekly conviction roundup, edition one: the National League opens and the board is emptyEdition one covers the National League's opening weekend on Saturday 8 August. No fixture reached the 7.0 out of 10 we release at on evidence the model would stand behind, so the board is empty. Here is what the model actually holds on those games, the one score that came close, and when the first scored board arrives.4 min ↗6 Aug 2026
Method notesWhy we don't score fixtures until four games into the seasonThe model scored all 60 opening fixtures across four divisions this week and published none of them. Here is what the model actually sees in August, and why a raw 7.3 built on one factor stays off the board.6 min ↗30 Jul 2026
Division analysisLeague One and League Two predictions: every fixture score the model has given this seasonLeague One and League Two predictions from an 8-factor conviction model. 72 fixtures scored in each division as at 2 September 2026, 2 released in League One and 1 in League Two, with the highest score on the whole card withheld.6 min ↗30 Jul 2026
Method notesWhich football stats actually predict a result? What 182 settled fixtures say about 8 factorsWe scored 182 settled lower league fixtures across 8 data factors, then compared the factor scores on the calls that landed against the calls that missed. League position separated them by 2.23 points. Head-to-head history separated them by 0.15.6 min ↗27 Jul 2026
Method notesWhy draws are the hardest result to predict in football: the view from a settled 192-fixture recordRoughly a quarter of league matches end level, yet the draw is almost never the single most likely result of any one fixture. That tension is why draws break prediction models. Our settled 192-fixture record puts numbers on it: 26% of all fixtures drew, but only 1 of the 22 fixtures our model scored 7.0+ did. What a conviction score mostly measures, it turns out, is draw risk.5 min ↗27 Jul 2026
Season previewsChampionship opening weekend 2026/27: every fixture and what the data already saysThe Championship returns on Friday 14 August, Wolves against Blackburn under the lights, and runs through to a Monday night Welsh derby between Cardiff and Wrexham. Our model's settled record holds a spring read on 21 of the 24 clubs involved. Fixture by fixture, here is what the data carries into the opening weekend, and where it is honestly blind.6 min ↗27 Jul 2026
Division analysisNational League predictions: every fixture score the model has given this seasonNational League predictions from an 8-factor conviction model. 96 fixtures scored and 22 released as at 2 September 2026, the first settled round named in full including the miss that scored highest.7 min ↗27 Jul 2026
Weekly roundupWeekly conviction roundup: the highest-conviction EFL and National League fixtures, every weekEvery Thursday in season, this page's latest edition lists every fixture our 8-factor model scores 7.0 or higher across the Championship, League One, League Two and National League, with the working shown. Some weeks that's ten fixtures. Some weeks it's none. Here's how the roundup works and what the scores mean.4 min ↗14 Jul 2026
Method notesxG in the lower leagues: what changes below the Premier LeaguexG earned its reputation at the top of the game, where every shot is tracked. Down the pyramid the data thins until, in our National League record, it vanishes entirely: 0 of 32 settled fixtures had xG available. What that means for using it, honestly.5 min ↗14 Jul 2026
Method notesHow to analyse lower league football fixtures with dataThe method that works below the Premier League isn't one clever stat, it's a weighted read across several ordinary ones. Here's the full process on a real fixture our model scored 7.9, including the two factors it had to score without.6 min ↗9 Jul 2026
Method notesHow accurate is football match prediction data? Our settled record, in fullOur released record is 27 from 39 released picks, 14 April to 5 September 2026. This is the long read underneath it: the settled spring 2026 window in full, every conviction band, misses included.5 min ↗9 Jul 2026
Season previewsLeague One 2026/27 season preview: favourites, the data, and the model's viewLeicester and Sheffield Wednesday come down as the consensus favourites, but both arrive with the weakest run-in reads in our Championship record. The cleanest League One data profile last spring belonged to a side that didn't even make the play-offs.6 min ↗9 Jul 2026
Season previewsChampionship 2026/27 season preview: favourites, the data, and the model's viewWest Ham, Wolves and Burnley come down with the consensus behind them, but the model has never scored them. The strongest data profiles in our settled record belong to promoted Cardiff and to Southampton, who start the season on minus four points.6 min ↗7 Jul 2026
Season previewsLeague Two 2026/27 season preview: favourites, the data, and the model's viewLeague Two 2026/27 preview: the consensus promotion favourites, promoted and relegated clubs, and Lower League Analyst's 8-factor model data on the contenders, including the numbers that disagree with the consensus.6 min ↗7 Jul 2026
Season previewsNational League 2026/27 season preview: favourites, the data, and the model's viewNational League 2026/27 preview: the consensus favourites, promoted and relegated sides, and Lower League Analyst's 8-factor model data on Carlisle, Boreham Wood, Scunthorpe and the contenders.5 min ↗7 Jul 2026
Method notesHow the 8-factor conviction score works (with a real worked example)How Lower League Analyst's 8-factor conviction score is calculated, shown in full on a real settled fixture, with our complete calibration record from last season's run-in.5 min ↗6 Jul 2026
Method notesLeague Two Predictions This Week: Data-Backed Analysis Across Every FixtureStructured, data-backed analysis of every League Two fixture this week: the 8 factors that matter, conviction scoring, and how to skip the guesswork.7 min ↗4 Jul 2026
Method notesEFL xG Trends: Championship, League One and League Two ExplainedA deep-dive into Expected Goals (xG) across the EFL and how the 8-factor model spots teams whose results don't match their underlying performance.8 min ↗4 Jul 2026
Method notesLeague One Predictions 2026: How Data Beats Gut Instinct Every WeekWhy data-driven League One predictions outperform gut instinct - the 8 factors, conviction scoring, and how to use them each week.6 min ↗4 Jul 2026
GeneralWelcome to the Lower League Analyst blogA new home for deep dives into the Championship, League One, League Two and National League: the data, the stories and the picks behind every conviction score.2 min ↗
Club analysisStockport County form and fixture data: five picks, four winners, and three 4-fold legs that all came inStockport County form and fixture data for 2026/27: five released picks since April, four winners, and three Best 4-fold legs this season that all won. Saturday's 4-fold went 3 from 4 (Barrow drew). 2 in 3 of our picks win (69%).5 min ↗29 Oct 2026
Method notesWhy your acca goes 3 from 4: the maths, our four near misses, and Saturday's 4-fold at about 1 in 5A 4-fold finishes 3 from 4 more often than any other way, about twice as often as it lands. The maths behind it, our four Best 4-folds that all went 3 from 4, what to do about it, and Saturday 31st October's 4-fold: four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 5 (22%), with Boreham Wood v Hartlepool as the free leg.5 min ↗27 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupSaturday's 4-fold went 3 from 4: Barnet let us down, and 5 of our 6 Saturday picks wonSaturday's 4-fold on 24th October 2026 went 3 from 4: Boreham Wood 4-0, Reading 2-1 and Wolves 1-0 won, Barnet drew 1-1 with Oldham. Five of six Saturday picks won, 2 in 3 of our picks win (68%), and the free leg for 31st October is Middlesbrough.5 min ↗24 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupBoreham Wood v AFC Fylde prediction: top of the National League, 63% to win, and the lead leg in today's 4-foldOur Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde prediction for the National League on 24 October 2026: Boreham Wood to win, a 63% win chance, scored 8.2 out of 10 and released at 1.37. The free leg of today's Best 4-fold, which is four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 7 (14%). The numbers, the risks, the last three 4-folds and the record.5 min ↗22 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupSaturday's 4-fold for 24th October: four 3pm legs, about 1 in 7, led by Boreham WoodSaturday's Best 4-fold for 24th October 2026: four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 7 (14%) on our numbers. The free leg in full is Boreham Wood to beat AFC Fylde, 63% win chance, 8.2 out of 10, released at 1.37. Why these legs, why no early kick-offs, and the last three 4-folds leg by leg.5 min ↗20 Oct 2026
Club analysisSouthampton form and fixture data: five picks, three winners, and why West Ham away is off our boardSouthampton form and fixture data for 2026/27: five released picks since April, three winners, both losers home draws. Unbeaten at home, one away win, and West Ham away scores 5.4. 2 in 3 of our picks win (67%), and tonight's free leg is Huddersfield.5 min ↗19 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupSaturday's 4-fold went 3 from 4: Southampton let us down, and 2 in 3 of our picks winSaturday's 4-fold on 17th October 2026 went 3 from 4: Salford 2-1, Stockport 1-0 and Wrexham 4-1 won, Southampton drew 0-0 with Bolton. Four of six Saturday picks won, 2 in 3 of our picks win (67%), and Tuesday's free leg is Huddersfield.5 min ↗17 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupSalford City v Crawley Town prediction: 1st v 24th, Salford to win at 61%, and the lead leg in today's 4-foldOur Salford City v Crawley Town prediction for League Two on 17 October 2026: Salford to win, a 61% win chance, scored 7.9 out of 10 and released at 1.42. The free leg of today's Best 4-fold, which is four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 6 (17%). The numbers, the risks, last week's 4-fold and the record.5 min ↗15 Oct 2026
Method notesHow many legs should your acca have? Why we stop at four, and Saturday's 4-fold is about 1 in 6Every leg you add to an acca cuts your chance of getting paid. What each extra leg does, from 65% on one leg to 4.9% on seven, why the Best 4-fold stops at four and leaves out early kick-offs, and Saturday 17th October's 4-fold: four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 6 (17%), with Salford City v Crawley Town as the free leg.5 min ↗13 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupSaturday's 4-fold went 3 from 4: Leicester let us down, and the record is now 47 from 70Saturday's 4-fold on 10 October 2026 went 3 from 4: Halifax 4-1, Worthing 5-0 and Stockport 3-1 won, Leicester lost 3-1 to Peterborough. Six of eight weekend picks won and the record is now 47 from 70 since April.5 min ↗10 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupHalifax v Gateshead prediction: Halifax to win, 66% chance, the free leg in today's 4-foldOur Halifax v Gateshead prediction for the National League on 10 October 2026: Halifax to win, a 66% win chance, scored 7.8 out of 10 and released at 1.44. The free leg of today's Best 4-fold, which is four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 5 (18%). The numbers, the risks and the record.5 min ↗8 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupSaturday's 4-fold for 10th October: four 3pm legs, about 1 in 5, led by HalifaxSaturday's Best 4-fold for 10th October 2026: four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 5 (18%) on our numbers. The free leg in full is Halifax to beat Gateshead, 66% win chance, 7.8 out of 10, released at 1.44. Why these legs, why no early kick-offs, and the record.5 min ↗6 Oct 2026
Club analysisGateshead form and fixture data: four picks against them, four winners, 2026/27Gateshead form and fixture data from an 8-factor conviction model. Four released picks against them since 31 August 2026, four winners, £40 of stakes returning £66.10. Record 41 from 62 since 14 April 2026. Updated 6 October 2026.6 min ↗3 Oct 2026
Weekly roundupGrimsby v Shrewsbury prediction: 7.4 out of 10, back Grimsby at 1.70Our Grimsby v Shrewsbury prediction for League Two on 3 October 2026: Grimsby to win, scored 7.4 out of 10 and priced at 1.70. Every factor behind the score, what cuts against it, the rest of today's board and last week's results.5 min ↗1 Oct 2026
Method notesHow to bet around the draw in lower league football: half our losing picks finished level118 of the 408 lower league fixtures we have settled this season finished level, which is 29%. Ten of our 20 losing picks were draws. Here is why the draw is so hard to call, every drawn pick with its score and price, and three ways to handle it.5 min ↗29 Sept 2026
Weekly roundupWeekend results: 2 from 5, and the record is now 38 from 57Two of our five picks won on Saturday 26 September 2026: Bristol Rovers 1-0 Exeter City at 1.70 and Boreham Wood 3-0 at Solihull Moors at 1.55. Southend, Plymouth and Grimsby lost. Record now 38 from 57 since April.5 min ↗26 Sept 2026
Club analysisHarrogate Town form and fixture data: four picks, four winners, 2026/27Harrogate Town form and fixture data from an 8-factor conviction model. Four released picks since 31 August 2026, four winners, £40 of stakes returning £78.30. Record 38 from 57 since 14 April 2026. Updated 28 September 2026.6 min ↗24 Sept 2026
Method notesOdds explained for lower league football: what a price of 1.55 actually meansA decimal price is a probability with the bookmaker margin on top. Our 52 released picks since 14 April 2026 won 36 times, which is 69%, against prices that implied 58%. Here is how to read a price, what value means, and what the gap has been worth by price band.5 min ↗19 Sept 2026
Weekly roundupMidweek results: 4 from 5, and the record is now 34 from 48Four of our five midweek picks landed between 15 and 18 September 2026: Southend 3-1 Tamworth at 1.58, Kidderminster 1-0 Gateshead at 1.65, Boreham Wood 2-1 at Scunthorpe at 1.78, Yeovil 4-1 Solihull Moors at 2.07. Middlesbrough drew 2-2 with Millwall. Record now 34 from 48 since April.5 min ↗17 Sept 2026
Method notesWhat an acca actually pays: £110 on our matchday accas returned £253Eleven matchday accas from our released board since 14 April 2026. Five landed. £110 staked returned £253.00, while the same 47 picks as £10 singles turned £470 into £563.20. Record 33 from 47, which is 70%.5 min ↗15 Sept 2026
Weekly roundupWeekend results: 3 from 4, and the record is now 30 from 43Three of our four picks landed on 11 and 12 September 2026: West Ham 6-0 Wrexham at 1.62, Harrogate 3-1 Tamworth at 1.79, Swansea 3-1 Burnley at 2.14. Boreham Wood drew at Eastleigh. Record now 30 from 43 since April.4 min ↗2 Sept 2026
Club analysisBoreham Wood form and fixture data: every score the model has given them, 2026/27Boreham Wood form and fixture data from an 8-factor conviction model. 8 fixtures scored this season, 5 played, 4 released, more than any other club on the site. As at 2 September 2026.7 min ↗2 Sept 2026
Club analysisBristol Rovers form and fixture data: every score the model has given them, 2026/27Bristol Rovers form and fixture data from an 8-factor conviction model. 6 fixtures scored this season, 4 played, 2 released, including the only away call the model has made in League Two. As at 2 September 2026.6 min ↗2 Sept 2026
Club analysisHuddersfield form and fixture data: every score the model has given them, 2026/27Huddersfield form and fixture data from an 8-factor conviction model. 6 fixtures scored this season, 4 played, 2 released, including an away call at Mansfield. As at 3 September 2026.6 min ↗2 Sept 2026
Club analysisSwansea form and fixture data: every score the model has given them, 2026/27Swansea form and fixture data from an 8-factor conviction model. 7 fixtures scored this season, 4 played, 0 released, and the only Swansea fixture carrying all eight factors. As at 2 September 2026.6 min ↗2 Sept 2026
Method notesThe released board: every pick Lower League Analyst has released this seasonEvery pick Lower League Analyst has released this season, updated weekly. 19 released from 309 scored as at 10 September 2026, 17 settled and 8 landed. Two picks are live for 12 September and five fixtures cleared the score and were withheld.7 min ↗20 Aug 2026
Division analysisNational League predictions and analysis: what the model has scored this seasonThe National League reaches our four-game threshold first, and it is the division where our released record is best and smallest. Eight released picks, eight landed, 14 to 25 April 2026, on a sample far too small to prove anything. Here is what the model has scored this season, what it has held back, and how the five withheld high scores that have been played actually finished.8 min ↗20 Aug 2026
Method notesWhy the board is empty: 257 fixtures scored, none releasedThe model has scored 257 fixtures this season and released none of them. One scored a perfect 10.0 as at 27 August 2026 and we published nothing, and it has since been played and missed, against a settled-archive maximum of 8.2. Five of the threshold-clearers have now been played and two landed. Here is why the board is empty, and who will give you a number today if you want one.8 min ↗9 Aug 2026
Weekly roundupNational League week one results 2026/27: every result, and the model scores we never publishedAll 12 National League results from Saturday 8 August 2026, published alongside the conviction scores our model generated and never showed to anyone. The result it leaned towards came in 5 times from 12. Here is why none of the 12 was released, and why a head-to-head-only score is not a conviction score.8 min ↗6 Aug 2026
Weekly roundupWeekly conviction roundup, edition one: the National League opens and the board is emptyEdition one covers the National League's opening weekend on Saturday 8 August. No fixture reached the 7.0 out of 10 we release at on evidence the model would stand behind, so the board is empty. Here is what the model actually holds on those games, the one score that came close, and when the first scored board arrives.4 min ↗6 Aug 2026
Method notesWhy we don't score fixtures until four games into the seasonThe model scored all 60 opening fixtures across four divisions this week and published none of them. Here is what the model actually sees in August, and why a raw 7.3 built on one factor stays off the board.6 min ↗30 Jul 2026
Division analysisLeague One and League Two predictions: every fixture score the model has given this seasonLeague One and League Two predictions from an 8-factor conviction model. 72 fixtures scored in each division as at 2 September 2026, 2 released in League One and 1 in League Two, with the highest score on the whole card withheld.6 min ↗30 Jul 2026
Method notesWhich football stats actually predict a result? What 182 settled fixtures say about 8 factorsWe scored 182 settled lower league fixtures across 8 data factors, then compared the factor scores on the calls that landed against the calls that missed. League position separated them by 2.23 points. Head-to-head history separated them by 0.15.6 min ↗27 Jul 2026
Method notesWhy draws are the hardest result to predict in football: the view from a settled 192-fixture recordRoughly a quarter of league matches end level, yet the draw is almost never the single most likely result of any one fixture. That tension is why draws break prediction models. Our settled 192-fixture record puts numbers on it: 26% of all fixtures drew, but only 1 of the 22 fixtures our model scored 7.0+ did. What a conviction score mostly measures, it turns out, is draw risk.5 min ↗27 Jul 2026
Season previewsChampionship opening weekend 2026/27: every fixture and what the data already saysThe Championship returns on Friday 14 August, Wolves against Blackburn under the lights, and runs through to a Monday night Welsh derby between Cardiff and Wrexham. Our model's settled record holds a spring read on 21 of the 24 clubs involved. Fixture by fixture, here is what the data carries into the opening weekend, and where it is honestly blind.6 min ↗27 Jul 2026
Division analysisNational League predictions: every fixture score the model has given this seasonNational League predictions from an 8-factor conviction model. 96 fixtures scored and 22 released as at 2 September 2026, the first settled round named in full including the miss that scored highest.7 min ↗27 Jul 2026
Weekly roundupWeekly conviction roundup: the highest-conviction EFL and National League fixtures, every weekEvery Thursday in season, this page's latest edition lists every fixture our 8-factor model scores 7.0 or higher across the Championship, League One, League Two and National League, with the working shown. Some weeks that's ten fixtures. Some weeks it's none. Here's how the roundup works and what the scores mean.4 min ↗14 Jul 2026
Method notesxG in the lower leagues: what changes below the Premier LeaguexG earned its reputation at the top of the game, where every shot is tracked. Down the pyramid the data thins until, in our National League record, it vanishes entirely: 0 of 32 settled fixtures had xG available. What that means for using it, honestly.5 min ↗14 Jul 2026
Method notesHow to analyse lower league football fixtures with dataThe method that works below the Premier League isn't one clever stat, it's a weighted read across several ordinary ones. Here's the full process on a real fixture our model scored 7.9, including the two factors it had to score without.6 min ↗9 Jul 2026
Method notesHow accurate is football match prediction data? Our settled record, in fullOur released record is 27 from 39 released picks, 14 April to 5 September 2026. This is the long read underneath it: the settled spring 2026 window in full, every conviction band, misses included.5 min ↗9 Jul 2026
Season previewsLeague One 2026/27 season preview: favourites, the data, and the model's viewLeicester and Sheffield Wednesday come down as the consensus favourites, but both arrive with the weakest run-in reads in our Championship record. The cleanest League One data profile last spring belonged to a side that didn't even make the play-offs.6 min ↗9 Jul 2026
Season previewsChampionship 2026/27 season preview: favourites, the data, and the model's viewWest Ham, Wolves and Burnley come down with the consensus behind them, but the model has never scored them. The strongest data profiles in our settled record belong to promoted Cardiff and to Southampton, who start the season on minus four points.6 min ↗7 Jul 2026
Season previewsLeague Two 2026/27 season preview: favourites, the data, and the model's viewLeague Two 2026/27 preview: the consensus promotion favourites, promoted and relegated clubs, and Lower League Analyst's 8-factor model data on the contenders, including the numbers that disagree with the consensus.6 min ↗7 Jul 2026
Season previewsNational League 2026/27 season preview: favourites, the data, and the model's viewNational League 2026/27 preview: the consensus favourites, promoted and relegated sides, and Lower League Analyst's 8-factor model data on Carlisle, Boreham Wood, Scunthorpe and the contenders.5 min ↗7 Jul 2026
Method notesHow the 8-factor conviction score works (with a real worked example)How Lower League Analyst's 8-factor conviction score is calculated, shown in full on a real settled fixture, with our complete calibration record from last season's run-in.5 min ↗6 Jul 2026
Method notesLeague Two Predictions This Week: Data-Backed Analysis Across Every FixtureStructured, data-backed analysis of every League Two fixture this week: the 8 factors that matter, conviction scoring, and how to skip the guesswork.7 min ↗4 Jul 2026
Method notesEFL xG Trends: Championship, League One and League Two ExplainedA deep-dive into Expected Goals (xG) across the EFL and how the 8-factor model spots teams whose results don't match their underlying performance.8 min ↗4 Jul 2026
Method notesLeague One Predictions 2026: How Data Beats Gut Instinct Every WeekWhy data-driven League One predictions outperform gut instinct - the 8 factors, conviction scoring, and how to use them each week.6 min ↗4 Jul 2026
GeneralWelcome to the Lower League Analyst blogA new home for deep dives into the Championship, League One, League Two and National League: the data, the stories and the picks behind every conviction score.2 min ↗
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Every Championship, League One, League Two and National League fixture gets a conviction score out of 10 from our team strength rating, with eight factors shown as the evidence. We only release the fixtures scoring 7.0 or higher, at 10:00 on the first morning each score is final. Drop your email and we'll send you the highlights, plus new analysis from the blog.