Gateshead form and fixture data: four picks against them, four winners, 2026/27

Backing against Gateshead has paid every time we've done it this season. The model has released 4 picks on their games since 31 August 2026, every one of them a call for the other side, and all 4 won, so £10 on each turned £40 into £66.10. Our overall record is 41 from 62 released picks since 14 April 2026, which is 66%, and every one of them went out before kick-off and was settled in public.

Gateshead are at FC Halifax Town on Saturday 10 October and the board goes up that morning. 14 days free, no card.

The split behind the 66% belongs on this page too. We went 19 from 22 last season, which is 86%, and we're 22 from 40 this season, which is 55%. A sample of 62 settled picks is small and the next 62 won't look the same. The full ledger, wins and losses, is at /performance.

Every Gateshead fixture the model has scored

The panel below reads our database every time the page loads, so the scores and the next fixture are current rather than frozen on the day this went up.

Why Gateshead keep turning up on the board

The model has scored 12 Gateshead fixtures this season, from 8 August to 3 October. Gateshead won 1, drew 1 and lost 10 of them, scoring 7 and conceding 27. They were 20th when they went to Harrogate on 31 August and 24th, bottom of the National League, by the time Altrincham came to them on 29 September.

That's the shape the model likes. A side that low hands its opponent a big League Position score and a big Fixture Difficulty score every week, and those two factors carry a lot of the weight. The question each time is whether the other side is good enough to take it.

The four released picks, and what each one returned

• 31 August 2026. Harrogate Town 2-1 Gateshead. Rated 7.8, backed Harrogate at 1.65. Won.
• 16 September 2026. Kidderminster Harriers 1-0 Gateshead. Rated 7.4, backed Kidderminster at 1.65. Won.
• 19 September 2026. Gateshead 1-6 Southend. Rated 7.0, backed Southend away at 1.57. Won.
• 29 September 2026. Gateshead 0-1 Altrincham. Rated 7.3, backed Altrincham away at 1.74. Won.

£10 on each staked £40 and returned £66.10. Two of the four were away calls, which we don't make often. None of them was a big price, and I'll take 1.57 on a side that wins 6-1 over something longer that doesn't land. Four from four is a run, and we publish the losing runs the same way.

The Kidderminster one paid twice

I had £10 on a double on 16 September: Kidderminster at home to Gateshead and Boreham Wood away at Scunthorpe. Kidderminster went out at 7.4 and Boreham Wood at 8.3. Kidderminster won 1-0, Boreham Wood won 2-1, and the slip returned £22.94.

Kidderminster's score had one factor pulling hard the other way. Head-to-Head scored 0.7 out of 10, because Kidderminster hadn't beaten Gateshead in their last 5 meetings. The rest of it outweighed that: League Position 8.8 with Kidderminster 7th and Gateshead 23rd, Home Record 8.5 and Fixture Difficulty 8.5. It finished 1-0, tighter than I'd have liked.

The Altrincham call had a weak leg

Altrincham at Gateshead on 29 September went out at 7.3 and 1.74. League Position read 8.8, with Altrincham 8th and Gateshead 24th, and Recent Form read 9.0 off 4 wins in their last 5. The weak leg was Altrincham's away record, 2 wins and 3 defeats from 5, which scored 5.0 and kept the total in the low sevens. Altrincham won 1-0 and that was enough.

What the threshold held back

Of the 12 Gateshead fixtures scored this season, 8 stayed off the board.

Four fell in August, before both clubs had 4 league games behind them, and we don't rate a fixture until they have. The model's calls on those were right 3 times out of 4. The one it got wrong was Sutton winning 1-0 at Gateshead on 28 August, and none of it reached anyone, which is what the gate is for.

Three more scored under 7.0:

• 5 September, Gateshead v Solihull Moors, rated 5.5. The model called Gateshead. It finished 1-1.
• 12 September, Forest Green v Gateshead, rated 6.0. The model called Forest Green. It finished 4-0.
• 26 September, Wealdstone v Gateshead, rated 4.7. The model called Wealdstone. It finished 4-0.

The last one is worth flagging. Gateshead v Worthing on 3 October scored 7.7 for Worthing, which clears the line, but no price came through before release, so it never went on the board. Worthing won 2-1. We don't count it, because a pick with no price at release isn't a pick anyone could have backed.

The rest of last week

Since the last results post we've gone 3 from 5.

• 29 September. Boreham Wood 3-1 Kidderminster Harriers. Rated 7.0, backed Boreham Wood at 1.38. Won.
• 29 September. Gateshead 0-1 Altrincham. Rated 7.3, backed Altrincham at 1.74. Won.
• 30 September. Eastleigh 1-1 Southend. Rated 7.3, backed Southend at 1.78. Lost.
• 3 October. Harrogate Town 3-0 AFC Hornchurch. Rated 7.2, backed Harrogate at 1.60. Won.
• 3 October. Grimsby 1-2 Shrewsbury. Rated 7.4, backed Grimsby at 1.70. Lost.

The Harrogate win makes it 5 from 5 on Harrogate fixtures this season. The Southend draw is the second draw to beat us since Millwall 2-2 West Ham on 19 September, and we wrote up why draws hurt in how to bet around the draw.

Questions about Gateshead and the conviction model

Answered below, and every number on this page carries the date it was read.

Where to go next

• Harrogate Town form and fixture data, the other clean record in our file.
• Weekend results: 2 from 5, the last full results post.
• Odds explained for lower league football.

Gateshead go to Halifax on Saturday at 3pm and the board goes up that morning with the score and the price. If the model has a view on it, you'll see it before kick-off. Start your trial: 14 days free, no card.

Published 6 October 2026. Every figure was read from the Lower League Analyst database on 6 October 2026. Scores and prices are quoted as they stood when the fixture was rated. The live panel re-reads the database on every page load. Lower League Analyst is not affiliated with Gateshead FC.