Bristol Rovers form and fixture data: every score the model has given them, 2026/27
Bristol Rovers form and fixture data from an 8-factor conviction model. 6 fixtures scored this season, 4 played, 2 released, including the only away call the model has made in League Two. As at 2 September 2026.
Bristol Rovers form and fixture data on this page comes from an 8-factor conviction model that scores every fixture and shows its working. As at 2 September 2026 it has scored 6 Bristol Rovers fixtures this season, 4 have been played, and 2 have been released. Bristol Rovers sit first in League Two on 9 points from 4 games.
Our released record is 27 from 39 released picks, 14 April to 5 September 2026. The full ledger is at /performance. Thirty nine settled picks is a small sample and the next thirty nine will not necessarily look like them. The split is the honest part: 19 from 22 across 14 April to 2 May 2026, then 8 from 17 since the new season opened on 31 August 2026.
Every Bristol Rovers fixture the model has scored this season
The panel below reads the database on every page load, so the scores, factor breakdown, gate status and next fixture are current rather than typed out at publication.
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Which factors fire for Bristol Rovers and which stay dark
Seven of the eight fire on the home release, and the eighth is absent across the whole of League Two.
Bristol Rovers at home to Rotherham on 5 September 2026 scored 7.5 at the time of rating, on Home Record 10.0, League Position 8.6, Fixture Difficulty 8.2, Recent Form 7.5, Goals and Clean Sheets 7.1, Shot Data and xG 6.6 and Head to Head 2.7. Injuries and Suspensions does not appear, because every one of the 83 injury factor rows the model holds this season is a Championship fixture.
The Head to Head number is the one to look at. At 2.7 out of 10 it is the only factor on the fixture arguing against the pick, and it is arguing hard. Six factors carry the score and one dissents.
The only away call the model has made in League Two
Grimsby against Bristol Rovers on 12 September 2026, released at 7.1 at the time of rating, is a call for the away side.
Across the 324 fixtures the model has scored this season, as at 3 September 2026, it has called home 310 times, away 14 times, and draw not once. Exactly one of those fourteen away calls is a League Two fixture, and it is this one. Ten are National League and one is League One.
Say the obvious thing about that. The model has no League Two away call record at all, because this is the first one. Whatever it is worth, it is not worth anything you can check yet.
Where the model is wrong about Bristol Rovers
Its four played calls this season went three from four, between 15 August and 1 September 2026, and every one of those four was a call for the home side, which on this evidence tells you very little.
The deeper problem is the one above: a model that called home on 310 of 324 fixtures is not choosing between three outcomes, it is choosing whether to speak. The two Bristol Rovers releases are the first place this season where that changes, and the away one has not been played.
League Two is also the division flattering us most. It has produced 1 of the 19 released picks this season, as at 10 September 2026, behind the National League's 14, and the model landed 23 of the 48 League Two fixtures it called between 15 August and 1 September 2026 against 14 of 42 in League One. Same method, same fortnight. That difference is a fact about League Two, not a fact about the model.
Bristol Rovers against the release gate
Half through, as at 10 September 2026. On 6 September the games-played gate rose from four league games to six, so Bristol Rovers are back behind it until they reach six.
Their 5 September fixture was released and it landed: a home call at 8.1, priced 1.73 at the time of rating, and Bristol Rovers beat Rotherham 1-0. Their 12 September trip to Grimsby scores 2.2 and is nowhere near the threshold. Nothing else in their file this season reached it: the four earlier fixtures scored between 1.3 and 5.9 and every one was held back on the four game rule then in force.
Questions about Bristol Rovers and the conviction model
Answered below, and every number on this page carries the date it was read.
Where to go next
- League Two 2026/27 season preview, now carrying an in season section.
- League One and League Two predictions.
- The released board, every released pick this season with the misses named.
- How the 8-factor conviction score works.
Model figures from Lower League Analyst's own database, read live on 2 September 2026, snapshot 08:02 UTC. League position and points computed from our own league fixture table, finished matches only, as at 2 September 2026. Fixture scores are quoted at the score the fixture held when it was rated. The live panel on this page re-reads the database on every page load. Lower League Analyst is not affiliated with Bristol Rovers FC. Lower League Analyst is not a bookmaker and does not take bets. No model can guarantee a result and past performance is not a guide to future outcomes. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. begambleaware.org
Frequently asked questions
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Why is the Grimsby fixture unusual?+
Which factor argues against the Rotherham pick?+
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