League One and League Two predictions: every fixture score the model has given this season

League One and League Two predictions on this page come from an 8-factor conviction model that scores every fixture and releases only the ones clearing three conditions: the conviction threshold, both clubs having six league games behind them, and a price at or below 2.20. As at 10 September 2026 it has scored 72 League One fixtures and 72 League Two fixtures this season, and released 2 of them in League One and 1 in League Two, as at 10 September 2026. This page said 6 in League Two on 2 September and that count was wrong: it included fixtures the gates were holding back.

Our released record is 27 from 39 released picks, 14 April to 5 September 2026. The full ledger is at /performance. Thirty nine settled picks is a small sample and the next thirty nine will not necessarily look like them. The split is the honest part: 19 from 22 across 14 April to 2 May 2026, then 8 from 17 since the new season opened on 31 August 2026.

Which League One and League Two fixtures has the model released?

Eight, as at 2 September 2026. Two in League One and six in League Two, and all eight are still to be played.

The League One pair are Peterborough against Sheffield Wednesday on 5 September, scored 8.2 when it was rated, and Huddersfield against Notts County on the same afternoon, scored 7.0 when it was rated. The League Two six run across 5 and 12 September and are led by Bristol Rovers against Rotherham at 7.5 and Walsall against Rochdale at 7.4, both scores taken at the time of rating.

Everything else in the two divisions was scored and held back. That is the point of the method rather than a gap in it.

What is the highest score on the League One card, and why has it not been released?

Sheffield Wednesday against Wigan on 12 September 2026, scored 8.2 as at 10 September 2026. It is the highest score in the EFL on the open card, and it is withheld. Blackpool against Bromley, which this page reported at 8.9 on 2 September, has since fallen to 7.0 and is also withheld.

Wigan have not played six league games. The model releases nothing until both clubs have six league fixtures behind them this season, because a score built on one or two matches is mostly noise wearing a decimal point. That threshold was four league games until 6 September 2026, when it was raised to six. Blackpool against Bromley at 7.0 is withheld on the same rule, and League One releases nothing at all for 12 September.

Three withheld fixtures above the threshold, all League One, all on 12 September 2026. No other division has any.

How do League One and League Two compare in the data this season?

They do not look alike, and the gap is larger than the one league place between them suggests.

League One fixtures carry an average of 3.40 of the 8 factors this season, as at 3 September 2026, the lowest of the four divisions we cover. League Two carries 3.64. That is why League Two has six released picks and League One has two: the same release threshold meets a much thinner evidence base in the third tier.

On results, the model called 42 League One fixtures that have since been played and landed 14 of them between 15 August and 1 September 2026. In League Two it called 48 played fixtures and landed 23 across the same window. Those are all scored fixtures rather than released picks, so they are not our record. They are the raw calibration underneath it, and we publish it because the difference between the two numbers is a fact about League Two, not a fact about the model.

When do the next League One and League Two boards land?

League Two published one pick, on 5 September 2026, and has nothing released for 12 September. League One published two on 5 September 2026 and has nothing released for 12 September either. Both divisions reach six league games through late September, so expect their columns to refill from about 19 September.

The board refreshes as clubs reach the gate. The model rescores daily, so a fixture that clears the threshold today can drop below it before kick off, and we say so on the page rather than quietly editing the number.

Where to go next

• The released board, every released pick this season with the misses named.
• League One 2026/27 season preview and League Two 2026/27 season preview, both carrying an in season section.
• How the 8-factor conviction score works.
• Huddersfield form and fixture data and Bristol Rovers form and fixture data, the two division leaders.

Model figures from Lower League Analyst's own database, read live on 2 September 2026, snapshot 08:02 UTC. Fixture scores are quoted at the score the fixture held when it was rated. Lower League Analyst is not a bookmaker and does not take bets. No model can guarantee a result and past performance is not a guide to future outcomes. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. begambleaware.org