How the 8-factor conviction score works (with a real worked example)
How Lower League Analyst's 8-factor conviction score is calculated, shown in full on a real settled fixture, with our complete calibration record from last season's run-in.
How the 8-factor conviction score works
Lower League Analyst scores every fixture in the Championship, League One, League Two and National League across 8 data factors: league position, recent form, home/away record, head-to-head, goals and clean sheets, shot data and xG, injuries and suspensions, and fixture difficulty. Each fixture gets a conviction score out of 10. Only fixtures at 7.0 or above are surfaced. This page shows the full working on a real settled match.
LLA is not a bookmaker and does not take bets. It is the research. The conviction score measures confidence in the analysis of a match, nothing else.
What are the 8 factors?
The 8 factors are league position, recent form, home/away record, head-to-head, goals and clean sheets (the defensive and attacking record), shot data and xG (including shots on target), injuries and suspensions, and fixture difficulty. Each factor is scored out of 10 from the underlying numbers, weighted, and combined into one conviction score per fixture.
A few things worth knowing about how they behave in practice:
League position and fixture difficulty do the anchoring. A side 22 places above their opponent starts with a strong structural case. The other factors then confirm or undermine it.
Form is read from actual sequences, not vibes. "WWDWW, 4 wins in 5" scores differently to "LWDWW, 3 wins in 5", and both feed the score with their real weight.
When a factor has no reliable data, it drops out and the weights renormalise. Lower-league injury news and xG coverage are patchier than the Premier League's. Rather than guess, the model scores the fixture on the factors it can actually evidence. That's why some fixtures are scored on 5 or 6 factors rather than all 8, and the working always shows which.
A real worked example: Cardiff 5-1 Northampton, 25 April 2026
On 25 April 2026 the model scored Cardiff at home to Northampton in League One at 7.8 conviction for a home win. Cardiff won 5-1. Here is the full factor breakdown exactly as the model produced it before kick-off.
| Factor | The data | Score /10 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd vs 24th, 22 places higher | 9.8 |
| Recent form | WWDWD, 3 wins in last 5 | 8.3 |
| Home record | 16W 2D 4L, 73% home win record | 8.9 |
| Head-to-head | Won 1 of last 3 meetings | 3.3 |
| Goals & clean sheets | 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game | 6.8 |
| Shot data & xG | 5.8 shots on target vs 2.8; xG 1.48 vs 0.99 | 7.4 |
| Injuries & suspensions | Opponent missing 3 players | 6.8 |
| Fixture difficulty | Home fixture, 22 places above opponent | 8.5 |
Note the head-to-head factor: 3.3 out of 10. Cardiff had won just 1 of the last 3 meetings, and the model doesn't hide the factor that disagrees. A conviction score is an honest weighted average, not a highlights reel. Seven factors pointed one way, one pointed the other, and the blend came out at 7.8.
How accurate is the conviction score?
Across 192 settled fixtures from last season's run-in (14 April to 25 May 2026), accuracy rose in step with conviction: 22% of predicted outcomes were correct below 5.0 conviction, 42% between 5.0 and 6.0, 71% between 6.0 and 7.0, and 19 of 22 at 7.0 and above, across 192 settled fixtures from 14 April to 25 May 2026. That staircase is the point of the score.
The full record:
| Conviction band | Settled fixtures | Predicted outcome correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 5.0 | 94 (86 called) | 21 | 24% |
| 5.0 to 5.9 | 48 | 20 | 42% |
| 6.0 to 6.9 | 28 | 20 | 71% |
| 7.0+ | 22 | 19 | 86% |
Update, 10 September 2026, and it cuts against us. The table above is the spring window, 14 April to 2 May 2026. The 2026/27 season has run the staircase backwards so far. Released picks at 8.0 and above have landed 2 times in 6, and released picks below 8.0 have landed 6 times in 11, across 17 settled released picks between 31 August and 5 September 2026. Two rounds is not a sample and we are not presenting it as one, but the spring table on its own would imply the good run is typical, and on the evidence to date it is not. Our released record across both windows is 27 from 39 released picks, 14 April to 5 September 2026, with the full ledger at /performance.
One correction first, applied 13 August 2026. The bottom row previously read 94 and 22%. The model declined to name an outcome on 8 of the 94 fixtures it scored below 5.0, and a fixture it refused to call is not a prediction that failed, so those 8 sit outside the accuracy column. Called fixtures below 5.0: 86, of which 21 landed.
Two honest notes on that table.
First, this is why only 7.0+ fixtures are surfaced. Out of 192 fixtures scored, just 22 crossed the threshold. Most match outcomes are genuinely uncertain and the score says so by staying low. A tool that surfaced 30 "strong" fixtures a weekend would be manufacturing confidence that the data doesn't contain.
Second, the misses stay on the record. The worst one from the run-in: Cardiff away at Mansfield on 2 May, scored 7.2 for an away win. Mansfield won 5-4. Nine goals, and the model's read was wrong. The rest-of-season data said Cardiff clearly; a nine-goal thriller said otherwise. It's on the record with everything else, because a calibration table you can trust has to include the rows that hurt.
Why not just use xG?
Below the Premier League, xG on its own gets noisy. Shot-location data quality drops, set pieces make up a much bigger share of goals, and squads change more between seasons. That's why xG is 1 factor of 8 in this model rather than the model. Blending it with form, defensive record and fixture context is what produces the calibration staircase above.
Where to see it live
Every scored fixture, with its full factor breakdown like the Cardiff example, is on the tool once the 2026/27 season starts. Season previews built on the same data: our National League 2026/27 preview and League Two 2026/27 preview.
All figures above come from Lower League Analyst's own settled-fixture record, 14 April to 25 May 2026, 192 fixtures across four divisions. Lower League Analyst is not a bookmaker and does not take bets. It is the research: the hard work done for you, the working shown, and the record published. No model can guarantee a result, and past performance is not a guide to future outcomes. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. begambleaware.org
Frequently asked questions
What are the 8 factors in the conviction score?+
How accurate is the conviction score?+
Why are only fixtures at 7.0 or above surfaced?+
What happens when a factor has no reliable data?+
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