The released board: every pick Lower League Analyst has released this season

The released board is every pick Lower League Analyst has released this season. As at 10 September 2026 it holds 19 released picks drawn from 309 fixtures scored, of which 17 have settled and 8 landed. Two picks are live for Saturday 12 September. Five fixtures cleared the score and were withheld.

Start with the part most sites leave out. The board has got worse since the season started, not better. Across the two rounds settled so far the released picks have landed 8 times in 17, between 31 August and 5 September 2026. The spring window ran 19 from 22 between 14 April and 2 May 2026. Same model, same threshold, and a materially worse fortnight.

Our released record is 27 from 39 released picks, 14 April to 5 September 2026. The full ledger is at /performance. Thirty nine settled picks is a small sample and the next thirty nine will not necessarily look like them. The split is the honest part: 19 from 22 across 14 April to 2 May 2026, then 8 from 17 since the new season opened on 31 August 2026.

What is on the released board right now?

Nineteen picks for the season, against 309 fixtures scored since 1 August 2026.

All figures read from our own database on 10 September 2026.

Two corrections to what this page said last week, both ours. It reported 37 released picks. The query behind that number counted fixtures at 7.0 and above without checking whether they had actually been released, so it counted fixtures the gates were holding back. The verified figure is 19. And it said that Blackpool against Bromley and Sheffield Wednesday against Wigan had been released for 12 September. Neither was. Both are withheld, and the reason is the second correction.

What changed on 6 September 2026?

Two things, and they narrowed the board rather than widened it.

The games-played gate moved from four league games to six. A home record built on two home fixtures is not a home record, and the first month of the season showed it. Six gives three home fixtures and lets the form factor drop a club's opening two results.

A price cap was added at 2.20. A fixture can now clear the conviction threshold, clear the games-played gate, and still be withheld because the price on our call sits above the cap. That is a third release condition and it did not exist before 6 September.

So a fixture reaches the board when it clears the release threshold, both clubs have six league games behind them, and the price is 2.20 or shorter. Three conditions, not two, and every page on this site that still says two is being corrected this week.

Which fixtures are released for 12 September 2026?

Two, from a card of 44 fixtures across the four divisions. Every price is the price the fixture carried when it was rated.

Both are National League. The three EFL divisions have released nothing for this round.

Which fixtures cleared the score and were withheld?

Five, and the new cap accounts for more of them than the gate does.

Seven fixtures on the card cleared 7.0. Two went out and five did not. This is the first week in which the price cap has withheld more of a card than the games-played gate, and one of the five is the highest-scoring fixture in the EFL this weekend.

None of those five is a judgement about the fixture. Sutton United against Scunthorpe scored 8.1 and was withheld over ten pence of price.

What has the model got wrong this season?

The uncomfortable pattern is that the higher scores have done worse.

Released picks at 8.0 and above have landed 2 times in 6. Released picks below 8.0 have landed 6 times in 11. Across 17 settled released picks between 31 August and 5 September 2026, the conviction staircase has run backwards. In the spring window it ran the right way, which is why the score exists at all. Two rounds is not a sample and we are not presenting it as one, but it is the first thing we would want to know if we were reading this page rather than writing it.

The 9.0 on Sutton United at home to Wealdstone on 31 August 2026 was the highest score of the opening round and it lost 0-2. The 8.8 on AFC Hornchurch against Forest Green on 5 September was the highest score of the second round and it lost 0-1.

Five of the nine losses were draws. The model has not called a draw once in 309 fixtures scored this season, and 74 of the 260 settled fixtures finished level, which is 28.5%. A model that never calls a draw hands back roughly three fixtures in ten before it starts.

What does the model do when it calls an away side?

Almost nothing, and the pattern is worth publishing because we did not design it.

Across 309 fixtures scored this season the model has called the home side 299 times and the away side 10 times. Home calls have landed 111 times in 253 settled fixtures. Away calls have landed 4 times in 7. Seven fixtures is not a sample and the comparison is not one we would lean on, but every away call this season has been released, and no home call reaches an away call's average conviction.

What the board does not tell you

It does not tell you what we scored and rejected, which is 290 of 309 fixtures this season. Those are why the released record exists and why it cannot be compared with a site that prints a call on every match.

It does not tell you a rate to expect. A count and a window describes what happened. It is not a forecast, and the last two rounds are the argument for saying so.

When does the next board publish?

Picks are released at 10:00 on their own matchday and then locked. The 15 and 16 September midweek round has not been scored yet, because the model scores about a week ahead, so those fixtures will appear on this page later in the week. Expect the EFL columns to refill through late September as clubs reach six league games.

Where to go next

• How the 8-factor conviction score works.
• Why we do not score fixtures until the games-played gate is met, which now carries the six-game rule and the price cap.
• The weekly conviction roundup, where each week's board is indexed.
• National League 2026/27 season preview, the division carrying both of this week's picks.
• Boreham Wood form and fixture data, the club in this week's away call.

Model figures read live from Lower League Analyst's own database on 10 September 2026. Conviction scores and prices are quoted at the score and price the fixture held when it was rated. Correct as of 10 September 2026. Lower League Analyst is a data research tool, not a betting product. It is not a bookmaker and does not take bets. No model can guarantee a result, and past performance is not a guide to future outcomes. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. begambleaware.org