Saturday's 4-fold for 24th October: four 3pm legs, about 1 in 7, led by Boreham Wood

Saturday's Best 4-fold is out: four legs, all 3pm kick-offs, and on our numbers it lands about 1 time in 7 (14%). 2 in 3 of our picks win (67%), and every pick we've released is logged on the site with its result, losers included. The top leg is below in full, and the other three are on the board, 14 days free, no card: see Saturday's 4-fold.

Saturday's 4-fold at a glance

The free leg: Boreham Wood to beat AFC Fylde

Boreham Wood host AFC Fylde in the National League at 3pm on Saturday. On our numbers Boreham Wood win this nearly 2 times in 3, a 63% win chance, and the team strength rating scores it 8.2 out of 10. That's the top score on Saturday's whole board, which is why it's the leg that goes out free. It was released on Saturday 17th October at a price of 1.37.

Boreham Wood are top of the league and they're flying. They've won their last five (WWWWW), they're unbeaten at home this season with 5 wins and 1 draw from 6, and they're scoring 2.6 a game while letting in 1.0. The rating has them at 1,688 against Fylde's 1,485, which is a big gap at this level.

What cuts against it: Fylde are 7th, not a side scrapping at the bottom, and Boreham Wood have only won 2 of the last 5 meetings between the two. 1.37 is a short price too. The model doesn't look at price when it picks, so this is a leg for the acca rather than a single to lump on.

How the 4-fold is built

Every match day gets built the same way and I don't touch it by hand. Take the picks released for that day. Leave out any kick-off before the day's main kick-off time. Rank what's left by score out of 10 and take the top four. Price plays no part at any stage.

Saturday has 45 lower league fixtures across the Championship, League One, League Two and the National League: 34 at 3pm, 10 at 12:30 and one at 5:30pm. Six of them scored 7.0 or more and made the board, and one more leg joined that board this morning. Two of the six kick off at 12:30, so they sit out, and the four that are left are all 3pm games.

Multiply the four win chances together and you get 14%, which is about 1 in 7.

Why there's no early kick-off in it

The 12:30 is the leg that ruins your afternoon. The early game goes 1-1, the acca's dead by quarter past two, and you spend the 3pm games watching winners that don't pay you a penny. I'd rather leave two decent picks out than build an acca that can die before the main games start.

With all four legs at 3pm, everything is live at once. If you fancy cashing out with one game left, you can see the whole picture when you make the call.

What 1 in 7 actually means

Four home wins picked at random land about 1 time in 28. This one is about 1 in 7, because every leg is a side our numbers make a clear favourite.

It's a bit longer than the last few Saturdays. One of the locked legs is weaker than the other three, and that drags the whole thing down. I'm not going to dress that up. A 4-fold is never a banker, and this week it's a 1 in 7 shot.

Each leg you add cuts the chance again, and with ordinary legs it roughly halves it. Bolt on a fifth leg as strong as these and you're down to about 1 in 12. By seven legs you're on a long shot however good each leg looks. That's why the Best 4-fold stops at four. If you want five, six or seven legs, the Acca Builder on the site lets you add them. Just know what each one costs you.

In testing (2021 to 2026), the top four on a Saturday landed on about 1 Saturday in 5, between 21% and 24%. That's the number to hold us to over a season, not a week.

The last three 4-folds

Three 4-folds have settled since we went acca first on 6th October. None of them landed, and every one of them went 3 from 4. That stings, and you'll see it on the results page the same as the winners.

Saturday 17th October went 3 from 4. Salford beat Crawley 2-1 at 1.42, Stockport beat Bromley 1-0 at 1.26 and Wrexham beat Preston 4-1 at 1.73. Southampton drew 0-0 with Bolton at 1.52 and let us down.

Tuesday 20th October also went 3 from 4. Huddersfield beat Peterborough 4-1 at 1.56, Oxford beat Wigan 2-1 at 1.91 and Luton beat Barnsley 2-1 at 1.55. Barnet lost 3-1 at home to Swindon at 1.50.

Saturday 10th October went 3 from 4 as well. Halifax beat Gateshead 4-1 at 1.44, Stockport beat Barnsley 3-1 at 1.44 and Worthing beat Solihull Moors 5-0 at 1.82. Leicester lost 3-1 at home to Peterborough at 1.61.

Across every released pick, 2 in 3 of our picks win (67%). The full count, every price and every result is on the results page, and Tuesday's post leads with whether this one landed, leg by leg, the three locked ones included.

Get the other three legs

Boreham Wood is the free leg. The other three legs in Saturday's 4-fold, plus the two 12:30 picks that sit out of it, are on the site with their scores, prices and win chances. 14 days free, no card: see Saturday's 4-fold.