Saturday's 4-fold went 3 from 4: Leicester let us down, and the record is now 47 from 70

Saturday's 4-fold didn't land. Halifax, Worthing and Stockport all won, and Leicester lost 3-1 at home to Peterborough, so it finished 3 from 4. Across the weekend the model released eight picks and six of them won, which takes the record since April to 47 from 70, or 67%. If you'd rather have next Saturday's legs before kick-off than read about them on a Tuesday, the trial is 14 days free, no card: start it here.

The 4-fold, leg by leg

All four legs went out on Tuesday 6 October, four days before kick-off, and all four kicked off at 3pm. The win chance is the goals model's number for the side we backed, the score is out of 10 and the price is the price at release.

Multiply the four win chances together and you get about 1 in 5 (18%). That's what we said on Thursday and again on Saturday morning, and it's the honest size of a 4-fold even when every leg is a strong one.

FC Halifax Town 4-1 Gateshead. The free leg and the top of the 4-fold at 7.8. Thirteenth against twenty-fourth in the National League, and Halifax had lost one of six at home. That's now five picks against Gateshead this season and five winners.

Worthing 5-0 Solihull Moors. Fifth against twenty-third, with WDWWW as Worthing's recent form, which scored a perfect 10 on that factor. It was the longest price in the 4-fold at 1.82 and the easiest afternoon of the four.

Stockport County 3-1 Barnsley. Fifth against eighteenth in League One, and Stockport were scoring 2.1 a game. The soft spot was form, WDLWL going in, and it didn't matter.

Leicester 1-3 Peterborough. The last leg in at 7.0, the lowest score that makes the board. Fourteenth against twenty-third in League One looked comfortable, and Leicester were putting 6.0 shots on target a game to Peterborough's 2.5. Two numbers argued against it: one home win from three, and an xG of 1.51 to 1.56 that said the shots weren't turning into better chances. Peterborough scored three. I'd back the setup again, but I won't pretend I didn't see the home record.

What it paid

£10 on the 4-fold at release prices would have returned £60.76. It went with Leicester.

£10 on each of the four as singles returned £47.00 from £40: Halifax paid £14.40, Worthing £18.20 and Stockport £14.40.

The early kick-off we left out

Plymouth beat AFC Wimbledon 2-1 at 12:30, scored 7.4 and went out at 1.53. The 4-fold leaves out any game that kicks off before the main 3pm slot, so Plymouth sat outside it. Had we let the 12:30 in, Plymouth takes Leicester's place and the 4-fold lands.

I'm telling you because a tipster who hid it would be doing exactly what we built this to stop. The rule stays. The early game is the leg that ruins your afternoon: if it goes, your acca is dead before the 3pm games have kicked off, and you spend the rest of Saturday watching winners you can't cash. One Saturday where it would have helped doesn't change that.

The rest of the weekend

Four more picks went out for Friday to Sunday, outside the 4-fold, and three of them won.

Forest Green also scored 7.0, level with Leicester. When two legs tie, the earlier kick-off goes in, which is why Leicester made the 4-fold and Forest Green didn't. Both lost, so the tie-break cost nothing.

The record

47 from 70 released picks since 14 April 2026, which is 67%. Last season was 19 from 22 (86%) and this season is 28 from 48 (58%). Every pick and every result is on /performance, losers included.

We started logging the Best 4-fold on 10 October, so the 4-fold record is 0 landed from 1. In testing (2021 to 2026) the top four on a Saturday landed on about 1 Saturday in 5 (21 to 24%). Most weeks a 4-fold loses, and a 3 from 4 miss is what most of those losing weeks look like. The point of the four is that when it lands, it pays for the weeks it doesn't.

Saturday's 4-fold so far

Three legs are on the board for Saturday 17 October, and all three kick off at 3pm. Here's the free one.

Salford City v Crawley Town, Saturday 3pm, League Two. Back Salford: 61% win chance, 7.9 out of 10, 1.42 at release. Salford are top and Crawley are bottom, twenty-three places apart, with Salford on WWWWD and four wins from five at home.

The other two legs are for members, and two midweek picks go tonight as well. A fourth leg can join Saturday's board once the midweek numbers are final, and Thursday's post gives the full 4-fold and its chance.

14 days free, no card: get on the board.