Grimsby v Shrewsbury prediction: 7.4 out of 10, back Grimsby at 1.70
Our Grimsby v Shrewsbury prediction for League Two on 3 October 2026: Grimsby to win, scored 7.4 out of 10 and priced at 1.70. Every factor behind the score, what cuts against it, the rest of today's board and last week's results.
If you want one bet for 3pm today, back Grimsby to beat Shrewsbury: the model scores it 7.4 out of 10 and it went out at 1.70. Lower League Analyst is 40 from 60 since 14 April 2026, which is 67%, and £10 on every pick at the published price has turned £600 into £680.80. There's one more pick on today's board behind the trial, 14 days free, no card: see today's board.
The pick: Grimsby to beat Shrewsbury
Grimsby host Shrewsbury in League Two at Blundell Park, kick-off 3pm. Grimsby sit 6th and Shrewsbury 18th, twelve places apart, and the model gives the home win 7.4 out of 10. Only fixtures scoring 7.0 or more make the board, so this one cleared the bar with something to spare.
The price at release was 1.70. That implies a 59% chance, and I think Grimsby win this more often than that. If you're doing a single, it's the bet. If you're building something bigger, read the section on draws further down before you add legs.
What drives the 7.4
Seven factors went into this score. Here's each one, with what it read and how it scored out of 10.
| Factor | What the data says | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Home record | 3W 1D 0L at home, 75% win rate | 9.8 |
| Fixture difficulty | Home fixture, 12 places above the opponent | 8.5 |
| League position | 6th v 18th | 8.3 |
| Shot data and xG | 5.8 shots on target v 4.6, xG 2.36 v 1.66 | 7.4 |
| Goals and clean sheets | 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game | 6.3 |
| Recent form | LWWDD, 2 wins in the last 5 | 5.3 |
| Head-to-head | Won 2 of the last 5 meetings | 5.3 |
The home record does the heavy lifting. Three wins and a draw from four home games, no defeats, and home record carries as much weight in the score as form, shot data and fixture difficulty. The shot numbers back it up. Grimsby create more and the xG gap is wide enough that I'm happy the table position isn't a fluke.
What cuts against it
Form is the weak spot. LWWDD is two wins in five, and two of those five games were draws. Head-to-head is no help either, with Grimsby winning two of the last five meetings. They're the two lowest scores in the build.
There's also the fact that Grimsby let us down last weekend. We backed them at Newport on 26 September at 7.0 and 1.84, and they lost 2-1. That pick sits in the record with every other loser. A 7.4 at home against the side in 18th is a stronger case than a 7.0 away from home.
Then there's the draw. Across the 408 lower league fixtures we settled between 8 August and 30 September, 29% finished level, and ten of our 20 losing picks were draws. A high score tells you the evidence agrees on a side. It can't rule out a 1-1. If that worries you, draw no bet on Grimsby gives you the insurance at a shorter price.
The rest of today's board
There's one other released pick today.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Division |
|---|---|---|
| 3pm | Harrogate Town v AFC Hornchurch | National League |
It scored in the 7s. The side, the exact score and the price are on the board for trial members and subscribers. That's the deal: one pick in full here, the rest on the site, and every result published afterwards whichever way it goes.
How the last week went
Settled picks are public, so here's everything from Saturday to Wednesday.
| Date | Fixture | Our pick | Score | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep | Solihull Moors v Boreham Wood | Boreham Wood | 8.4 | 1.55 | Won 0-3 |
| 26 Sep | Southend v Barrow | Southend | 7.9 | 1.72 | Lost 2-4 |
| 26 Sep | Plymouth v Burton Albion | Plymouth | 7.8 | 1.55 | Lost 0-1 |
| 26 Sep | Bristol Rovers v Exeter City | Bristol Rovers | 7.4 | 1.70 | Won 1-0 |
| 26 Sep | Newport County v Grimsby | Grimsby | 7.0 | 1.84 | Lost 2-1 |
| 29 Sep | Boreham Wood v Kidderminster Harriers | Boreham Wood | 7.0 | 1.38 | Won 3-1 |
| 29 Sep | Gateshead v Altrincham | Altrincham | 7.3 | 1.74 | Won 0-1 |
| 30 Sep | Eastleigh v Southend | Southend | 7.3 | 1.78 | Lost 1-1 |
That's 4 from 8. Last Saturday was a poor one at 2 from 5, and the midweek games brought it back level. Crawley Town v Barnet on 26 September was postponed, so that pick is void and doesn't count either way.
The running record is 40 from 60 since 14 April. That breaks down as 19 from 22 last season and 21 from 38 so far this season. The average price across all 60 picks is 1.80, which implies 56%, and the picks have landed 67%. That gap is where the £80.80 profit on £10 singles comes from.
Why the board is short
The model scored all 33 lower league fixtures on today's coupon, and two made the board. Most weekends look like that. I'd rather give you two bets I believe in than ten I don't, and the record above is what a short list has produced so far.
Picks drop at 10am on matchday, and the results go up after full time. 14 days free, no card: get on today's board.
Frequently asked questions
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