Weekly conviction roundup, edition one: the National League opens and the board is empty
Edition one covers the National League's opening weekend on Saturday 8 August. No fixture reached the 7.0 out of 10 we release at on evidence the model would stand behind, so the board is empty. Here is what the model actually holds on those games, the one score that came close, and when the first scored board arrives.
THE BOARD THIS WEEK: EMPTY
No fixture on the National League's opening card reached the 7.0 out of 10 we release at, on evidence the model would stand behind. Nothing goes out this week.
That is the threshold working, not the model having a quiet week. Across our settled record of last spring, 22 of 192 scored fixtures cleared 7.0, about one in nine, and the final four weeks of that season produced none at all from 16 scored fixtures. An empty board is a normal output of a bar that means something.
WHY THE OPENING CARD HOLDS ALMOST NOTHING
Pulled from our own scoring engine on 6 August 2026: the model has scored all 60 fixtures from 8 to 22 August across the Championship, League One, League Two and the National League, and flagged every single one insufficient data.
54 of the 60 rest on exactly one factor, head-to-head record. The other six rest on no factor at all, because the clubs have no recent meetings between them: Notts County v Leicester, Barnsley v Bromley, Middlesbrough v Lincoln, Cardiff v Wrexham, Carlisle v Worthing and AFC Hornchurch v Kidderminster.
The settled spring record averaged 6.8 factors per fixture. The opening card averages 0.9. In August the model is holding about one eighth of its usual evidence, and a conviction score built on one eighth of the evidence is not the same number, even when it looks identical.
THE ONE THAT CAME CLOSE, AND WHY IT STAYED IN
Scunthorpe v Yeovil scores a raw 7.3 out of 10. In season, that clears the line and goes on the board.
It is staying in. The 7.3 rests on a single input, Scunthorpe winning 3 of the last 5 meetings, and nothing else at all. When the model had a full factor set, a 7.0-plus read landed 19 times in 22 across the released window of 14 April to 2 May 2026. A one-factor 7.3 wears the same badge with none of that behind it, and releasing it would spend the meaning of the number on a week of content.
AND THE ERROR IN THE OTHER DIRECTION
Carlisle v Worthing currently sits at 0.0 out of 10. Not because the data condemns Carlisle, but because Worthing came up this summer and the pair have no head-to-head at all.
A published 0.0 reads as a verdict. It is a shrug. Keeping both of those off the board is the same decision, made twice.
WHAT THE RECORD ALREADY SAYS ABOUT THIS DIVISION
Worth having while we wait, because it is settled and it is on the public record. Last spring the National League produced 8 released fixtures at 7.0 or higher, from far fewer scored fixtures than any EFL division, and all 8 were right.
The highest conviction score in the whole record is a National League game: Carlisle United v Brackley Town on 25 April 2026, at 8.2 out of 10, scored on five factors rather than eight because the fifth tier's data is thinner. Carlisle won 3-0.
LAST WEEK'S BOARD, MARKED
There isn't one. This is edition one.
From next week, this section carries the previous edition's board marked against the results, misses first and named. At 7.0 and above the model was wrong 3 times in 22 last spring, so there will be misses to mark, and they stay on the record the way our 7.2 on Cardiff at Mansfield became a 5-4 defeat and stayed on the results page.
NEXT EDITION
Not yet. Updated 27 August 2026: no edition has run since this one, because the model has released no fixture since the season started. As at 27 August the engine holds 257 scored fixtures this season and has released none of them. The next edition lands in the week of the first rated board, the National League round of Monday 31 August 2026.
National League fixtures should be the first to qualify for a scored board, in late August, once both clubs in a fixture have four league games of this season behind them. The Championship, League One and League Two follow in early September. Until then these editions will keep showing you what the model holds, rather than what it would like you to think it holds.
Figures pulled live from Lower League Analyst's scoring engine on 6 August 2026 (60 fixtures, 8 to 22 August). Settled-record figures from 14 April to 25 May 2026, 192 fixtures across the Championship, League One, League Two and National League. Lower League Analyst is not a bookmaker and does not take bets. It is the research: the hard work done for you, the working shown, and the record published. No model can guarantee a result, and past performance is not a guide to future outcomes. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. begambleaware.org
Updated 10 August 2026: the settled spring record's factor average is corrected to 6.8 factors per fixture. An earlier version of this page read 7.1.
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