Why your acca goes 3 from 4: the maths, our four near misses, and Saturday's 4-fold at about 1 in 5

A 4-fold finishes 3 from 4 more often than any other way, and about twice as often as it lands. Our last four Best 4-folds all went 3 from 4, every leg of them is published on the site, and 2 in 3 of our picks win (69%). Here's why it keeps happening, what to do about it, and Saturday's 4-fold with its top leg in full: 14 days free, no card.

3 from 4 is the likeliest result

Take four legs that each win about 65% of the time. That's roughly what our picks carry on the goals model. This is how often each finish comes up.

Strong legs push you towards 3 from 4, because they get you close most weeks. A 65% leg still loses about one time in three, and with four of them on the slip one usually does. That's why 3 from 4 always feels like one result robbed you. Most of the time nothing went wrong with the picks. That's just what four strong favourites look like over a season.

Our four 4-folds and the leg that went

We started logging the Best 4-fold on 10th October. Four have settled and every one went 3 from 4. 4-folds: 0 landed from 4.

The other twelve legs all won. On those four chances, missing all four 4-folds was about a coin toss (50%), so I'm not changing how the acca is built because of it. It hurts, and it's on the results page the same as the winners.

Look at which leg went. Barnet were the weakest leg on the slip both times. Southampton were the strongest leg we had on 17th October, a 74% win chance, and drew 0-0. Leicester sat in the middle of theirs. You can't see in advance which leg goes, so swapping a leg on a hunch on Saturday morning doesn't fix anything. It just swaps a leg the numbers rate for one they don't.

What to do about it

Stop adding legs to make the payout feel worth it. Here's Saturday's own board as the example. The Best 4-fold is about 1 in 5 (22%). Add the next-best 3pm pick and it drops to about 1 in 7 (15%). Take it out to seven 3pm legs and you're at about 1 in 19 (5%). Every pick on that slip scored 7.0 or more, and the seven-fold is still a long shot.

Keep every leg at 3pm. Saturday has two 12:30 picks on the board and neither goes in the 4-fold. The early kick-off is the leg that ruins your afternoon. It goes 1-1, the acca's dead before the 3pm games start, and you spend the afternoon watching winners that don't pay you a penny. With all four legs at 3pm, they're all live at once.

Judge it over a season. In testing (2021 to 2026) the top four on a Saturday landed on about 1 Saturday in 5, between 21% and 24%. Four home wins picked at random land about 1 time in 28. A 4-fold loses most weeks, and the week it lands has to pay for the weeks it doesn't. Nobody should sell you a 4-fold as a banker, and we won't.

Saturday's 4-fold: four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 5

Saturday 31st October has 44 lower league fixtures across the Championship, League One, League Two and the National League: 33 at 3pm, 10 at 12:30 and one at 5:30pm. Ten of them scored 7.0 or more and made the board, and two more legs joined it this morning. The two 12:30 picks sit out, and the top four of the eight 3pm picks make the 4-fold.

Multiply the four win chances together and you get 22%, about 1 in 5. That's the best chance of any 4-fold we've built since we started logging them. On the same numbers it goes 3 from 4 about 41% of the time, so be ready for that too. £10 on it at the released prices returns £37.78 if all four win.

The free leg: Boreham Wood to beat Hartlepool

Boreham Wood host Hartlepool in the National League at 3pm on Saturday. On our numbers Boreham Wood win this about 3 times in 4, a 76% win chance, and the team strength rating scores it 8.6 out of 10. That's the top score on Saturday's whole board, so it's the leg that goes out free. It was released on Wednesday 28th October at a price of 1.31, and it went straight to the top of the 4-fold.

It's 1st against 20th, and the ratings have a big gap between them: 1,701 against 1,450. Boreham Wood have won their last five (WWWWW), they're unbeaten at home this season with 6 wins and 1 draw from 7, and they're scoring 2.7 a game while letting in 0.9. They were our free leg last Saturday as well and beat AFC Fylde 4-0.

What cuts against it is the head-to-head. Boreham Wood have won only 2 of the last 5 meetings with Hartlepool. 1.31 is a short price too, and the model doesn't look at price when it picks, so this is a leg for the acca rather than a single to lump on.

Since Tuesday

One midweek pick has settled since Tuesday's post. Boston United beat Gateshead 2-1 on Tuesday night at 1.53. Across every released pick, 2 in 3 of our picks win (69%). Every pick, price and result is on /results, the draws and the defeats included. Tipsters bury their near misses, and we publish every one.

Get the other three legs

Boreham Wood is the free leg. The other three legs in Saturday's 4-fold, plus the two 12:30 picks that sit out of it, are on the site with their scores, prices and win chances. Tuesday's post goes through all four legs once they're settled, whatever happens. 14 days free, no card: see Saturday's 4-fold.