Swansea form and fixture data: every score the model has given them, 2026/27

Swansea form and fixture data on this page comes from an 8-factor conviction model that scores every fixture and shows its working. As at 2 September 2026 it has scored 7 Swansea fixtures this season, 4 have been played, and none has been released. Swansea sat first in the Championship on 10 points from 4 games as at 3 September 2026. Their 5 September fixture against Wrexham was one of the Championship's first two released picks of the season, a home call at 7.0, and it finished 0-0. Their 12 September fixture against Burnley has fallen to 6.2 and is not released.

Our released record is 27 from 39 released picks, 14 April to 5 September 2026. The full ledger is at /performance. Thirty nine settled picks is a small sample and the next thirty nine will not necessarily look like them. The split is the honest part: 19 from 22 across 14 April to 2 May 2026, then 8 from 17 since the new season opened on 31 August 2026.

Every Swansea fixture the model has scored this season

The panel below reads the database on every page load, so the scores, factor breakdown, gate status and next fixture are current rather than typed out at publication.

Which factors fire for Swansea and which stay dark

Southampton against Swansea on 8 September 2026 is one of only 13 fixtures on the entire card carrying all eight factors, and all 13 of them are Championship fixtures. It scored 5.9 as at 2 September 2026, below the release threshold.

The eight break down, at the time of rating, as Home Record 10.0, Head to Head 8.7, Shot Data and xG 7.0, Goals and Clean Sheets 6.0, Recent Form 5.8, Injuries and Suspensions 5.8, Fixture Difficulty 3.1 and League Position 1.2. The last of those is the whole story: the league table now says Swansea are the better side, and it drags the fixture below the threshold from Southampton's point of view rather than lifting it.

The Injuries and Suspensions factor is the reason Swansea have a full file at all. Every one of the 83 injury factor rows the model holds this season sits in the Championship. League One, League Two and the National League have none.

Where the model is wrong about Swansea

It has been wrong about them nearly every week, and the gap is the most useful thing on this page.

The model called home in all four played Swansea fixtures this season and got one of the four right, between 15 August and 1 September 2026. Swansea won away at Stoke City and away at Derby, drew at home with Sheffield United, and only the home win over Watford matched the call. Over the same four rounds Swansea went to the top of the division.

None of those four was released, because the gate then in force required both clubs to have four league games behind them and Swansea's opponents did not. That gate rose to six league games on 6 September 2026. So the errors cost nobody anything, which is the point of the gate rather than a defence of the score.

There is one more thing worth saying plainly. The only Swansea fixture we have ever released was on 18 April 2026, and the pick was against them: the model called Southampton to win at the Swansea.com Stadium and Southampton did. We have not yet released a pick in Swansea's favour.

Swansea against the release gate

They have cleared the four game half of the gate. They have not cleared the score half.

Swansea have their first released pick of the season, and it arrived overnight. Swansea against Burnley on 12 September is released at 7.5, a home call carrying all eight data factors, quoted at the score it held when it was rated. Their next fixture, at home to Wrexham on 5 September, scores 6.8 as at 3 September 2026 and stays below the threshold on eight factors. Yesterday this page said no Swansea fixture had reached the threshold and the Championship had released nothing from 83 scored fixtures. Both were true when written and neither is now: the division released its first four picks on 3 September 2026, and all four carry the full eight factors.

Championship fixtures carry an average of 5.01 of the 8 factors, the highest of the four divisions we cover. For six weeks more evidence produced fewer releases rather than more, and that is not a contradiction: a fuller factor set is harder to agree with itself.

Questions about Swansea and the conviction model

Answered below, and every number on this page carries the date it was read.

Where to go next

• Championship 2026/27 season preview, now carrying an in season section.
• The released board, every released pick this season with the misses named.
• How the 8-factor conviction score works.
• Huddersfield form and fixture data, the League One leaders.

Model figures from Lower League Analyst's own database, read live on 2 September 2026, snapshot 08:02 UTC. League position and points computed from our own league fixture table, finished matches only, as at 2 September 2026. Fixture scores are quoted at the score the fixture held when it was rated. The live panel on this page re-reads the database on every page load. Lower League Analyst is not affiliated with Swansea City AFC. Lower League Analyst is not a bookmaker and does not take bets. No model can guarantee a result and past performance is not a guide to future outcomes. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. begambleaware.org