Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde prediction: top of the National League, 63% to win, and the lead leg in today's 4-fold
Our Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde prediction for the National League on 24 October 2026: Boreham Wood to win, a 63% win chance, scored 8.2 out of 10 and released at 1.37. The free leg of today's Best 4-fold, which is four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 7 (14%). The numbers, the risks, the last three 4-folds and the record.
Back Boreham Wood to beat AFC Fylde at 3pm today: on our numbers they win this nearly 2 times in 3 (63%), the team strength rating scores it 8.2 out of 10, and it went out last Saturday at 1.37. 2 in 3 of our picks win (67%), and every one we've released is on the site with its result, losers included. Boreham Wood is the top leg of today's Best 4-fold (four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 7), and the other three legs are on the board, 14 days free, no card: see today's 4-fold.
The pick: Boreham Wood to beat AFC Fylde
National League, kick-off 3pm today, Saturday 24 October. Boreham Wood are at home and top of the table. Fylde come in 7th.
The team strength rating has Boreham Wood on 1,688 and Fylde on 1,485. That 203-point gap produces the 8.2, the highest score on today's board. That's why this is the leg that goes out free. Our goals model turns the same gap into a match chance: Boreham Wood win 63%, draw 19%, Fylde win 18%.
Put this game on ten times and Boreham Wood win six, maybe seven. It ends level about twice and Fylde nick one or two. A side that has won five on the bounce, at home, against a team six places below them is the sort of leg I want at the top of an acca.
What the numbers say
Since 6 October the score out of 10 comes from the team strength rating alone. The other numbers below don't move the score, but they're what I check before my own money goes on, so here they are.
| Factor | What the data says | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form | WWWWW, 5 wins in the last 5 | 10.0 |
| Home record | 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats at home | 9.4 |
| Team strength | Rated 1,688 v 1,485, 63% win, 19% draw, 18% loss | 8.2 |
| Fixture difficulty | Home fixture, 6 places above the opponent | 7.4 |
| Goals | 2.6 scored, 1.0 conceded per game | 6.4 |
| League position | 1st v 7th, 6 places higher | 6.3 |
| Head-to-head | Won 2 of the last 5 meetings | 5.3 |
Form and home record carry this one. Boreham Wood are unbeaten at home, with 5 wins and a draw from 6, they've won their last five, and they're scoring more than two and a half a game. When the leaders are in that kind of run and they're at home, I don't need talking into it.
What cuts against it
Fylde aren't a soft touch. 7th in the National League is a side in the play-off places, and the league position score of 6.3 is only middling for a top-of-the-table pick, because a six-place gap scores well below top against bottom. The head-to-head is the weakest line on the sheet: Boreham Wood have won only 2 of the last 5 meetings. And the draw sits at 19%, close to 1 in 5 on its own.
Then there's the price. 1.37 says the bookies make Boreham Wood about a 73% shot, above our 63%. The model doesn't look at price when it picks, so I'm not selling this as a big single at 1.37. It's the strongest leg of the day, and the 4-fold is built from legs.
Where Boreham Wood sits in today's 4-fold
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Match day | Saturday 24 October |
| Legs | 4 |
| Kick-offs | All 3pm |
| Chance of landing | About 1 in 7 (14%) |
| Free leg | Boreham Wood to beat AFC Fylde |
| Locked legs | 3, on the board for trial members and subscribers |
The 4-fold gets built the same way every match day and I don't touch it by hand. Take the released picks for the day, drop anything that kicks off before the main kick-off time, rank the rest by score and take the top four. Six picks were released for today. Two kick off at 12:30, so they sit out, because the early game is the leg that kills your acca by quarter past two and leaves you watching three winners that pay you nothing. The four that are left are all 3pm games, so everything is live at once.
Multiply the four win chances together and you get 14%, about 1 in 7. That's a bit longer than the last few Saturdays, because one of the locked legs is weaker than the other three. For comparison, four home wins picked at random land about 1 time in 28. In testing (2021 to 2026) the top four on a Saturday landed on about 1 Saturday in 5, between 21% and 24%. Each leg you add roughly halves your chance, which is why we stop at four. If you want five, six or seven legs, the Acca Builder on the site will add them for you.
The last three 4-folds
Three 4-folds have settled since we went acca first on 6 October. None has landed, and every one went 3 from 4. Here they are, leg by leg.
| Match day | Fixture | Our pick | Score | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 20 Oct | Huddersfield v Peterborough | Huddersfield | 7.5 | 1.56 | Won 4-1 |
| Tue 20 Oct | Barnet v Swindon Town | Barnet | 7.4 | 1.50 | Lost 1-3 |
| Tue 20 Oct | Oxford United v Wigan | Oxford | 7.2 | 1.91 | Won 2-1 |
| Tue 20 Oct | Luton v Barnsley | Luton | 7.1 | 1.55 | Won 2-1 |
| Sat 17 Oct | Salford City v Crawley Town | Salford | 7.9 | 1.42 | Won 2-1 |
| Sat 17 Oct | Southampton v Bolton | Southampton | 7.4 | 1.52 | Drew 0-0 |
| Sat 17 Oct | Stockport County v Bromley | Stockport | 7.4 | 1.26 | Won 1-0 |
| Sat 17 Oct | Wrexham v Preston | Wrexham | 7.3 | 1.73 | Won 4-1 |
| Sat 10 Oct | FC Halifax Town v Gateshead | Halifax | 7.8 | 1.44 | Won 4-1 |
| Sat 10 Oct | Worthing v Solihull Moors | Worthing | 7.5 | 1.82 | Won 5-0 |
| Sat 10 Oct | Stockport County v Barnsley | Stockport | 7.2 | 1.44 | Won 3-1 |
| Sat 10 Oct | Leicester v Peterborough | Leicester | 7.0 | 1.61 | Lost 1-3 |
Nine winners from twelve legs and not a single 4-fold paid out. That's how accas die, one leg at a time, and it stings. The 4-fold record is 0 from 3, and it stays on the site whether it lands or not.
The record
2 in 3 of our picks win (67%), across every pick we've released. The full count, every price and every result is on the results page. Tuesday's post leads with whether today's 4-fold landed, leg by leg, with the three locked legs named once they've settled.
14 days free, no card: get on today's 4-fold.
Frequently asked questions
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