Midweek results: 4 from 5, and the record is now 34 from 48

Four of our five midweek picks landed, and the released record since April now stands at 34 from 48, which is 71%. A tenner on each of the five at the prices we published returned £70.80 from £50 staked. If you want the board rather than the write-up, the trial is 14 days free, no card: start it here.

The bet I had on Thursday

£22.94 on Yeovil Town at 2.00, returned £45.88. The stake was the return from Wednesday night's double, so it was the same money run twice in two days. Our released price on Yeovil was 2.07 and the slip was struck at 2.00.

The five picks and how they went

Every pick was released before kick-off. The score is the conviction score out of 10 at release, and the price is the price at release.

Southend 3-1 Tamworth. Fifth against twenty-second, seventeen places, and the league position factor read 9.0 out of 10 on that gap alone. Southend had won two of their three at home and were scoring two a game against 1.4 conceded. At 1.58 it was the shortest of the winners and the least interesting to watch.

Middlesbrough 2-2 Millwall. The loss. Three home wins from three gave Middlesbrough a perfect home record score of 10.0, Millwall had ten players absent, and the model made it 7.5 at 1.52. Boro led the shot data as well, 4.6 shots on target a game to 3.8, and 1.93 xG to 1.73. It finished level, which is how most of our losses finish.

Kidderminster 1-0 Gateshead. Seventh against twenty-third. The one factor arguing against it was head to head at 0.7 out of 10, because Kidderminster had won none of the last five meetings, and the model went anyway on recent form at 8.3 and a home record of two wins and two draws. One goal was enough at 1.65.

Scunthorpe 1-2 Boreham Wood. The best score of the week at 8.3, and another away call. Four wins in their last five gave Boreham Wood a perfect recent form score of 10.0, their away record read 8.9 off three wins and a draw on the road, and they sat eighteen places above Scunthorpe. That is the third Boreham Wood away call this season and the second to land, after Worthing in August and the 1-1 at Eastleigh that beat us on 12 September.

Yeovil Town 4-1 Solihull Moors. The longest price of the five at 2.07 and the biggest margin. Yeovil came in on DLLWW, so recent form was the weakest part of the case at 5.7, and the rest of it was the fourteen place gap to Solihull and a home record of two wins, a draw and a defeat. Four goals was more than the numbers asked for.

What it paid

£10 on each of the five as singles returned £70.80 from £50 staked. That is £20.80 profit and 41.6% on stake.

A £10 five-fold went down with Middlesbrough. The four winners on their own would have paid £96.06, and picking those four out after the event is the easiest bet in football. The singles were the boring answer again, and the boring answer has now paid on three of the last four rounds.

Draws are still the thing that beats us

Fourteen released picks have lost since April and eight of them ended level. Middlesbrough against Millwall is the eighth.

None of the 519 fixtures the model has scored carries a draw as its call. There are 491 home calls and 20 away calls, and the reason is the test a fixture has to pass: the conviction score has to say the outcome is more likely than the price implies, and a draw price in these four divisions almost never clears it. So a game that finishes level is a loss for us, every time. Of the 517 scored fixtures that have a result, 142 finished level, which is 27.5%. That is the size of the problem and it is not going away.

If you back our picks you should expect to lose roughly one in three, and you should expect most of those to be draws rather than beatings.

The record, in full

34 from 48 released picks since 14 April 2026, which is 71%. Every pick and every result is published on /performance, the ones that lost alongside the ones that won.

The two seasons look nothing like each other and the split is the honest part. Last season was 19 from 22 between 14 April and 2 May, which is 86%. This season is 15 from 26 since 31 August, which is 58%. Twenty-six picks is not a sample anybody should retire on, and four from five in midweek is one good round rather than a turn in the weather.

How the board works

Every pick goes out before kick-off with its conviction score out of 10, the price we saw and the factor breakdown behind it. Every result goes up afterwards whichever way it went. Tipsters who show you the winners only are asking for trust they have not earned, and our losing picks sit on the same page as the winning ones.

14 days free, no card: get on the board.