How many legs should your acca have? Why we stop at four, and Saturday's 4-fold is about 1 in 6

Every leg you add to an acca cuts your chance of getting paid, and with ordinary legs it roughly halves it. Most punters add two or three legs too many. Lower League Analyst is 48 from 72 on released picks since 14th April, which is 67%, and every one of those picks is logged on the site with its result. This is how we decide how many legs go in, with Saturday's Best 4-fold as the worked example and its top leg in full: 14 days free, no card.

What each extra leg does to your chance

Take a leg that wins about 65% of the time. That's a strong favourite, roughly what our picks carry on the model's numbers. Now keep adding legs of the same strength and watch what happens.

The maths is the chances multiplied together, and nothing else. Every leg costs you about a third of what you had left, and once you get past four the price climbs while the chance of collecting falls off a cliff. A 7-fold built from seven sides that each win two games in three still lands about once in twenty Saturdays. That's a long shot, however good each leg looks on its own.

Compare that with picking blind. Four home wins chosen at random land about 1 time in 28. Four strong favourites get you to something like 1 in 5 or 1 in 6, and that's the whole reason to use numbers rather than gut feel.

Why four legs

Four is where I think the trade is best. The payout is big enough to be worth having, and the chance is still one you'll see land a handful of times a season. Last Saturday's four legs combined at 6.08 at the released prices, so £10 was playing for £60.76.

In testing (2021 to 2026), the top four picks on a Saturday landed on about 1 Saturday in 5, between 21% and 24%. That's the number to hold us to. It won't land most weeks and nobody should sell you a 4-fold as a banker. When it lands, it pays for the weeks it doesn't.

If you want five, six or seven legs, the Acca Builder on the site lets you add them. I back bigger ones myself some weekends. Just know what the seventh leg does: it takes a 1 in 13 shot out to about 1 in 20.

Why no early kick-offs

The Best 4-fold only uses games at the day's main kick-off time, which is 3pm on a normal Saturday. The 12:30 is the leg that ruins your afternoon. It goes 1-1, the acca's dead by quarter past two, and you spend the 3pm games watching three winners that pay you nothing.

With every leg at 3pm, all four are live at once. If you're thinking about cashing out with one game left, you can see the whole picture when you make the call.

Saturday's 4-fold: four legs, all 3pm, about 1 in 6

Saturday 17th October has 34 lower league fixtures across the Championship, League One, League Two and the National League: 27 at 3pm and 7 at 12:30. Six of them scored 7.0 or more and made the board. One of the six kicks off at 12:30, so it sits out. The top four of the other five make the 4-fold.

Multiply their four win chances together and you get 17%, which is about 1 in 6. Three of the legs stay on the members' board. The top-ranked one goes out free.

The free leg: Salford City to beat Crawley Town

Salford City host Crawley Town in League Two at 3pm on Saturday 17th October. On our numbers Salford win this about 3 times in 5, a 61% win chance, and the team strength rating scores it 7.9 out of 10, the highest in Saturday's 4-fold. It was released on Sunday 11th October at a price of 1.42.

The case is top against bottom. Salford are 1st and Crawley are 24th, and the ratings agree: 1,562 against 1,395. Salford have won four of their last five (WWWWD) and four of five at home this season.

What cuts against it is the head-to-head. Salford have won only two of the last five meetings, and on expected goals the two sides have been closer than the table says (1.57 against 1.52). 1.42 is a short price. The model doesn't look at price when it picks, so this is a leg for the acca rather than a big single.

Last Saturday's 4-fold

Saturday 10th October's 4-fold went 3 from 4, and 3 from 4 pays nothing. Halifax beat Gateshead 4-1 at 1.44, Worthing beat Solihull Moors 5-0 at 1.82 and Stockport County beat Barnsley 3-1 at 1.44. Leicester lost 3-1 at home to Peterborough at 1.61 and took the acca with them. On our numbers it was an 18% shot.

That's one 4-fold settled under the new format and none landed yet. Tuesday's post goes through Saturday's legs one by one, the three locked ones included.

The record

48 from 72 released picks since 14th April, which is 67%. That's 19 from 22 last season and 29 from 50 so far this season. In midweek, Birmingham beat Preston 4-0 at 1.64 and Burnley drew 2-2 with Charlton at 1.65. £10 on every pick at the released price is £720 staked and £89.20 up, at an average price of 1.77.

Get the other three legs

Salford is the free leg. The other three legs in Saturday's 4-fold, and the rest of this weekend's board, are on the site with their scores, prices and win chances. 14 days free, no card: see Saturday's 4-fold.