What an acca actually pays: £110 on our matchday accas returned £253

Our record is 33 from 47 released picks since 14 April 2026, which is 70%. A tenner on every matchday acca we have put out in that time means £110 staked and £253.00 back. Six of the eleven returned nothing, and all six are in the table below, because the losing half is the part nobody screenshots. The board is 14 days free, no card: start the trial here and Saturday's picks land in your account at 10.

The maths, in one line

An accumulator multiplies the decimal prices together. Our two picks on 16 September were Boreham Wood away at Scunthorpe at 1.78 and Kidderminster at home to Gateshead at 1.65. Multiplied, that is 2.94, so a tenner returned £29.40. Both landed, 1-2 and 1-0.

Two things follow from that multiplication and they pull against each other. The price climbs fast and the chance of collecting falls just as fast. At a 70% strike rate a two-leg acca collects about half the time and a ten-leg acca collects about three times in a hundred. What follows is what that looked like with real money on our own picks.

Turning a price into a probability

Divide 1 by the decimal price. Kidderminster at 1.65 is 1 divided by 1.65, which is 61%. Boreham Wood at 1.78 is 56%. Multiply those two together and the acca had roughly a 34% chance on the bookmaker's own numbers, which is where 2.94 comes from. The bookmaker's margin sits on top of that, so a fair price would have been a little longer than 2.94.

That sum is the test every fixture has to pass before we release it. The conviction score out of 10 has to say the outcome is more likely than the price implies. A 7.0 at 1.19 stays on the shelf. The same 7.0 at 2.14 goes out, and Swansea at 2.14 beat Burnley 3-1 on 12 September.

Every matchday acca we have released

One acca per matchday, containing every pick on the board that day, £10 a time. Matchdays with a single pick are left out, because a one-leg acca is a single.

Five landed from eleven. That is £110 staked, £253.00 back, £143.00 profit, and 130% on stake.

The same picks backed as singles

Back all 47 released picks as £10 singles at the prices we published and you stake £470 and get £563.20 back. That is £93.20 profit and 19.8% on stake.

The accas made more money from less than a quarter of the stake, and they paid nothing on six matchdays out of eleven. Anyone who cannot sit through six blanks in a row belongs on the singles, and there is no shame in that at all.

Where the acca money actually came from

Six accas in April and May returned £223.60 from £60 staked. Five accas since 31 August have returned £29.40 from £50 staked.

The strike rate explains the gap. Released picks went 19 from 22 last season, which is 86%. This season they are 14 from 25, which is 56%. A dip in strike rate hurts an acca far more than it hurts a single, because every leg has to survive it. Our 56% has eaten four of the five accas this season.

Doubles are the shape that has paid

Five of the eleven were two-leg accas. Three of those landed: 14 April at 2.87, 15 April at 2.48 and 16 September at 2.94. £50 staked across the five returned £82.90. Five is a small sample, and it is still the only leg count that is ahead in both seasons.

The ten-fold that priced at 3,864.76

On 5 September there were ten picks on the board, the highest an 8.8 on AFC Hornchurch at home to Forest Green. Multiply the ten prices together and the acca comes out at 3,864.76, so a tenner pays £38,647.60. Four of the ten landed. Hornchurch lost 0-1 and Barrow beat Sutton 3-0 against our away call, so the £38,000 was gone before four o'clock.

That is the honest shape of a big acca. The number on the slip is what sells it, and it is exactly as big as the odds against it.

What I do with the board

I back every released pick as a single and I add a £5 double on the two highest-scoring picks when there are two or more. The singles carry the record and the double is the bit that makes a Saturday worth watching. When seven or ten picks go up I leave the full acca alone, because our own data says it does not come in.

Every pick goes out at 10:00 on matchday with its score out of 10 and the price at release, and every result is published afterwards, wins and losses. The trial is 14 days free, no card: get on the board here.