Lower League Analyst - EFL & National League Football Analytics

Every fixture across the Championship, League One, League Two and National League analysed across 8 data factors - league position, recent form, home/away record, head-to-head, goals & clean sheets, shot data & xG, injuries & suspensions, and fixture difficulty - with a conviction score out of 10.

Only fixtures scoring 7.0 or higher on the conviction model are released, and only when the selected side has a recorded price of 2.20 or shorter, so you see the games with the strongest data-backed case rather than a long list of noise. A conviction score measures how strongly the evidence agrees. It is not a probability.

Fixtures are not scored until both clubs have played six league matches, so the first conviction boards of the season publish once both clubs reach that point. Where a factor has no reliable evidence behind it, we leave it out and say so on the breakdown.

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How the 8-factor conviction model works

Each fixture is scored on league position, recent form, home/away record, head-to-head, goals & clean sheets, shot data & xG, injuries & suspensions, and fixture difficulty. The eight signals combine into a single conviction score from 0 to 10 that reflects how strong the data-backed case is for the match.

Lower League Analyst is a research tool for people who bet on the lower leagues. We don't take bets and we don't tell you what to stake. We score every fixture and publish the strong ones.