Weekend results: 3 from 4, and the record is now 30 from 43

Three of our four picks landed this weekend, and the record since April now stands at 30 from 43, which is 70%. A tenner on each of the four at the prices we published returned £55.50 from £40 staked. If you weren't on the board, the trial is 14 days free, no card: start it here and Saturday's picks land in your account at 10.

The four picks and how they went

Every pick below went out at 10:00 on its own matchday and was locked before kick-off. The score is the conviction score out of 10 at release. The price is the price at release.

West Ham 6-0 Wrexham. Friday night in the Championship. West Ham sat 2nd and Wrexham 14th, and the loudest factor was shot data at 9.6 out of 10, with West Ham averaging 6 shots on target a game to Wrexham's 3. I'd have taken a scrappy 1-0 at 1.62, so six was a bonus.

Harrogate Town 3-1 Tamworth. The top score on the board at 8.5. Harrogate were 3rd, Tamworth 19th, and Harrogate hadn't lost at home all season. Nothing in the factors argued against it and nothing on the pitch did either. This is Harrogate's third released win in three rounds, after Gateshead at home and Scunthorpe away.

Swansea 3-1 Burnley. The one I liked most, because 2.14 on a side sitting 3rd at home to a side sitting 23rd is a proper price. Head-to-head was the only factor pulling the other way, at 2.0, because Swansea had won 1 of the last 5 meetings. Seven of the eight factors said Swansea, and they were right.

Eastleigh 1-1 Boreham Wood. The loss. Boreham Wood came in on five straight wins and three away wins from three, and the model made them 7.6 at 1.57. Head-to-head said 3.3, again 1 win in the last 5 meetings, and this time the dissenting factor was the one that mattered. It finished level, and level is how most of our losses go. Five of this season's nine losses before this weekend were draws too, and 13 of the 47 fixtures the model scored across the weekend ended in one.

What it paid

A £10 treble on the three winners at the published prices returned £62.06. A £10 four-fold went down with the Boreham Wood draw, which is the acca problem in one line: three right, one wrong, nothing back. Singles were the boring answer this weekend and the one that paid.

The seven we held back

The model scored 47 fixtures across the four divisions this weekend and 11 of them cleared 7.0. Four went out. Seven were withheld, three because the price sat above our 2.20 cap and four because one of the clubs hadn't played six league games yet.

Those seven went 2 from 7. Sutton United at 8.1 lost 0-2 at home to Scunthorpe. Sheffield Wednesday at 7.8 drew 0-0 with Wigan. Blackpool at 7.7 drew 2-2 with Bromley. Stockport at 7.0 lost 3-4 at home to Leicester. York and Aldershot were the two that would have landed. I'm not claiming we saw any of that coming, because the gates don't watch the football. They watch the price and the sample, and this weekend that was enough.

The record, in full

30 from 43 released picks since 14 April 2026. That's every pick we've put out, wins and losses, and the full ledger is at /performance.

This season on its own is 11 from 21. The opening round on 31 August went 4 from 7, the 5 September round went 4 from 10, and this weekend went 3 from 4. That's the first round of the season we've come out ahead. Two rounds under half and one over doesn't tell you much yet, and I'm not going to pretend it does. What it does tell you is that we published all of it.

Tonight's board

Two picks went live at 10:00 this morning for the Tuesday night fixtures:

• Southend v Tamworth, National League. Southend at 7.7, priced 1.58. Southend sit 5th, Tamworth 22nd, and Southend have won 2 of 3 at home.
• Middlesbrough v Millwall, Championship. Middlesbrough at 7.5, priced 1.52. Three home wins from three this season, and Millwall have 10 players out.

Both are short prices and both are home calls, so a double at the published prices pays 2.40. The factors behind each one are on the board now, and both lock at kick-off.

Every pick and every result is published, before and after the game. Tipsters who only show you the winners are asking you to trust them. We'd rather you check. 14 days free, no card, and it covers the next two weekends: start the trial.