Saturday's 4-fold went 3 from 4: Barnet let us down, and 5 of our 6 Saturday picks won

Saturday's 4-fold didn't land. Boreham Wood, Reading and Wolves all won, and Barnet drew 1-1 at home to Oldham, so it finished 3 from 4. Five of the six picks we released for Saturday won, and across every released pick 2 in 3 of our picks win (68%). If you want the legs before kick-off instead of reading about them on a Tuesday, the trial is 14 days free, no card: start it here.

The 4-fold, leg by leg

All four legs were on the board by Thursday 22nd October, and all four kicked off at 3pm. The win chance is the goals model's number for the side we backed, the score is out of 10 and the price is the price at release.

Multiply the four win chances together and you get about 1 in 7 (14%). That's the number we gave on Thursday and again on Saturday morning.

Boreham Wood 4-0 AFC Fylde. The free leg and the top of the 4-fold at 8.2. Top of the National League against seventh, five wins from five, and five wins and a draw from six at home. Fylde were the highest-placed opponent of the four legs, and Boreham Wood still won by four.

Reading 2-1 Barnsley. Sixth against twenty-second in League One, four wins from six at home. The shot data was the worry, because Barnsley had been putting more on target per game than Reading. It was tight, and it went in.

Barnet 1-1 Oldham. The weakest leg of the four on win chance at 54%, and the longest price at 1.97. Second against twenty-first in League Two, four wins from the last five and an xG of 3.17 to 1.36. On paper it was a big gap. A draw at home to a side in the bottom four is the result that kills accas, and it killed this one.

Wolves 1-0 Watford. The highest win chance of the four at 65%, and the scrappiest win. Seventh against twentieth, but Wolves had won two of five and drawn two of five at home, and the shot data was level. One goal was enough.

What it paid

£10 on the 4-fold at release prices would have returned £61.52. It went with Barnet.

£10 on each leg as a single returned £44.00 from £40: Boreham Wood paid £13.70, Reading £16.40 and Wolves £13.90.

The early kick-offs

Two more picks went out for Saturday, both at 12:30, and both won.

Both would have ranked inside the top four on score. The 4-fold leaves out anything that kicks off before the main 3pm slot, and this week that rule cost nothing either way, because the acca went at 3pm with Barnet. I'm keeping the rule. Last week Middlesbrough drew 2-2 at 12:30 and would have killed the acca before the 3pm games had started. The early game is the leg that ruins your afternoon, and you don't find out which week that is until it's happened.

Four 4-folds, four near misses

We started logging the Best 4-fold on 10th October. 4-folds: 0 landed from 4, and every one of them went 3 from 4. Leicester, Southampton, Barnet on the Tuesday night and Barnet again on Saturday each cost us the last leg.

That's frustrating, and it's also what a 4-fold looks like. With each 4-fold landing somewhere between 1 in 5 and 1 in 7 on our numbers, four misses in a row was about a coin toss. In testing (2021 to 2026) the top four on a Saturday landed on about 1 Saturday in 5 (21 to 24%). Most weeks a 4-fold loses, and the week it lands pays for the weeks it doesn't. Four home wins picked at random land about 1 time in 28, which is why we pick them on data instead of on a hunch.

Across every released pick, 2 in 3 of our picks win (68%). Every pick and every result is on /results, the draws included. Tipsters bury the 1-1s, and we publish every one.

Saturday 31st October: the free leg

Saturday's board is out. As it stands this morning, the Best 4-fold for 31st October has four legs, all 3pm, and on our numbers it lands about 1 in 11 (9%). That's lower than the last few weeks. More legs can join the board after the midweek games, and if a stronger 3pm pick lands, the 4-fold changes with it. Here's the free leg.

Middlesbrough v Charlton, Saturday 3pm, Championship. Back Middlesbrough: 65% win chance, 7.8 out of 10, 1.31 at release. First against nineteenth, unbeaten at home with four wins and two draws, and 8.6 shots on target a game against Charlton's 3.6. The team strength rating has Middlesbrough well clear, 1,587 to 1,423. The short price is the catch if you're backing it as a single. As the first leg of an acca it's the one you want.

The other three legs are for members. There's also a midweek pick on the board for tonight, and that one is for members too.

14 days free, no card: get Saturday's 4-fold.