National League predictions: every fixture score the model has given this season

National League predictions on this page come from an 8-factor conviction model that scores every fixture and releases only what clears three conditions: the conviction threshold, both clubs having six league games behind them, and a price at or below 2.20. As at 10 September 2026 it has scored 84 National League fixtures this season and released 14 of them, more than the other three divisions combined.

Our released record is 27 from 39 released picks, 14 April to 5 September 2026. The full ledger is at /performance. Thirty nine settled picks is a small sample and the next thirty nine will not necessarily look like them. The split is the honest part: 19 from 22 across 14 April to 2 May 2026, then 8 from 17 since the new season opened on 31 August 2026.

What happened on the first released National League board?

Seven picks were released for Monday 31 August 2026 and four of them landed.

The honest part first. The highest score of the round, a 9.0 on Sutton United at home to Wealdstone, was one of the three that missed. Sutton lost 0-2 at Borough Sports Ground in front of 2,197 people, a result the club has published on its own site. Woking against Southend, rated 8.4, finished level. Kidderminster Harriers against Barrow, rated 7.2, also finished level.

The four that landed were Harrogate Town against Gateshead at 7.8, Yeovil Town against Tamworth at 7.6, Worthing against Boreham Wood at 7.3, and Solihull Moors against AFC Fylde at 7.1. All scores are quoted at the score the fixture held when it was rated.

Four from seven on one afternoon is a round, not a rate, and we are not going to dress it as one.

Why does the National League carry more released picks than the other three divisions?

Two reasons, and only one of them is about the football.

The division kicked off on 8 August, a week before the EFL, so every National League club reached four league games first. That is the timing. The second reason is that the fifth tier scores differently: as at 3 September 2026 our National League fixtures carry an average of 3.47 of the 8 factors, against 5.01 in the Championship, and they get there without any shot data at all.

Which factors are missing in the fifth tier?

Two of the eight, and their absence is the most distinctive thing in our National League file.

Across every National League fixture scored this season the model holds zero Shot Data and xG rows and zero Injuries and Suspensions rows, as at 2 September 2026. All 192 shot data rows this season sit in the EFL, and all 83 injury rows sit in the Championship. The fifth tier is scored on league position, recent form, head to head, home and away record, goals and clean sheets, and fixture difficulty.

That is a limitation, published rather than hidden. It also means the National League is the one division where our numbers cannot be reproduced from a public xG feed, because there is not one.

Where the model has been unusual this season

It has almost never called an away win. Across 324 fixtures scored this season, as at 3 September 2026, it called home on 310, away on 14, and draw on none, as at 2 September 2026. Ten of those twelve away calls are National League fixtures.

Two of them were released for 31 August and both landed, Worthing against Boreham Wood and Solihull Moors against AFC Fylde. That is the first evidence this season that the model is doing something other than backing the home side, and it is a fortnight old rather than a trend.

What is on the National League board next?

Fifteen released National League picks are open as at 2 September 2026, across 5, 12, 15 and 16 September. The highest is Scunthorpe against Boreham Wood on 16 September, rated 8.7 at the time of rating, and it is an away call.

Boreham Wood hold four released picks this season, more than any other club on the site.

Where to go next

• The released board, every released pick this season with the misses named.
• National League 2026/27 season preview, now carrying an in season section.
• Boreham Wood form and fixture data, the division leaders.
• How the 8-factor conviction score works.

Model figures from Lower League Analyst's own database, read live on 2 September 2026, snapshot 08:02 UTC. The Sutton United result was verified against suttonunited.net on 2 September 2026. Fixture scores are quoted at the score the fixture held when it was rated. Lower League Analyst is not a bookmaker and does not take bets. No model can guarantee a result and past performance is not a guide to future outcomes. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. begambleaware.org