Saturday's 4-fold for 10th October: four 3pm legs, about 1 in 5, led by Halifax

Saturday's Best 4-fold is out: four legs, all 3pm kick-offs, and on our numbers it lands about 1 time in 5 (18%). Lower League Analyst is 41 from 62 on released picks since 14th April, which is 66%, and every one of those picks is logged on the site with its result. The top leg is below in full, and the other three are on the board, 14 days free, no card: see Saturday's 4-fold.

Saturday's 4-fold at a glance

The free leg: Halifax to beat Gateshead

Halifax host Gateshead in the National League at 3pm on Saturday. On our numbers Halifax win this about 2 times in 3, a 66% win chance, and the team strength rating scores it 7.8 out of 10. That's the top score in Saturday's 4-fold, which is why it's the leg that goes out free. It was released on Tuesday 6th October at a price of 1.44.

The case is simple. Halifax are rated 1,528 and Gateshead 1,372, and the table agrees: Halifax are 13th, Gateshead are 24th and bottom, eleven places apart. Halifax have lost once in six at home this season (3 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat), and they've won three of the last five meetings between the two.

What cuts against it is form. Halifax are WDLDW over their last five, two wins, and a side that draws as often as that can draw again. 1.44 is also a short price. The model doesn't look at price when it picks, so this is a leg for the acca rather than a big single.

Gateshead have been good to us. We've had four picks against them this season and all four won: Harrogate beat them 2-1, Kidderminster beat them 1-0, Southend won 6-1 at their place and Altrincham won 1-0 there. The full run is on the Gateshead form page.

How the 4-fold is built

Every match day gets built the same way, and I don't touch it by hand. Take the picks released for that day. Leave out any kick-off before the day's main kick-off time. Rank what's left by score out of 10 and take the top four. Price plays no part at any stage.

Saturday has 45 lower league fixtures across the Championship, League One, League Two and the National League: 35 at 3pm, 9 at 12:30 and one at 5:30pm. Six of them scored 7.0 or more and made the board. One of those six kicks off at 12:30, so it sits out of the 4-fold, and the top four of the other five are all 3pm games.

Multiply the four win chances together and you get 18%, which is about 1 in 5.

Why there's no early kick-off in it

The 12:30 is the leg that ruins your afternoon. You've all had it: the early game goes 1-1, the acca's dead by quarter past two, and you spend the 3pm games watching three winners that don't pay you a penny. I'd rather leave a decent pick out than build an acca that can die before the main games kick off.

With all four legs at 3pm, everything is live at the same time. If you want to cash out with one game left, you can see the whole picture when you make the call.

What 1 in 5 actually means

Four home wins picked at random land about 1 time in 28. This one is about 1 in 5, because each leg is a side our numbers make a clear favourite.

Each leg you add cuts the chance again, and with ordinary legs it roughly halves it. Add a fifth leg as strong as these four and you're at about 1 in 8. By seven legs you're on a long shot, however strong each leg looks on its own. That's why the Best 4-fold stops at four. If you want five, six or seven legs, the Acca Builder on the site lets you add them. Just know what each one does to the chance.

In testing (2021 to 2026), the top four on a Saturday landed on about 1 Saturday in 5, between 21% and 24%. That's the number to hold us to. It won't land most weeks, and nobody should tell you a 4-fold is a banker. When it lands, it pays for the weeks it doesn't.

Last Saturday and the record

Saturday 3rd October had two picks. Harrogate Town beat AFC Hornchurch 3-0 at 1.60. Grimsby lost 2-1 at home to Shrewsbury at 1.70. The midweek before, Southend drew 1-1 at Eastleigh at 1.78, so that one went down too.

The running record is 41 from 62 since 14th April, which is 66%. That's 19 from 22 last season and 22 from 40 so far this season. £10 on every pick at the released price is £620 staked and £76.80 up. The average price across the 62 picks is 1.80.

This is the first Saturday the 4-fold runs under the new format, so there's no 4-fold record yet. Tuesday's post leads with whether it landed and goes through every leg with its score, price and result, the three locked ones included.

Get the other three legs

Halifax is the free leg. The other three legs in Saturday's 4-fold, and every other pick on this weekend's board, are on the site with their scores, prices and win chances. 14 days free, no card: see Saturday's 4-fold.