Top of the xPts table
Grimsby have 13.7 xPts from 7 matches, the most in the League Two.
The numbers · Expected points 2026/27
League Two expected points table
Expected points (xPts) turns the quality of chances in every match into the points a team would usually take from it. Compare it with real points to see who is riding their luck and who is due a turn. Updated daily.
Updated 28 September 2026. 82 of 94 league matches have xG so far.
Luckiest so far
Swindon Town have 3.5 more points than their chances suggest.
Unluckiest so far
Shrewsbury have 5.7 fewer points than their chances suggest.
Biggest gap to the real table
Shrewsbury are 2nd on xPts but 18th in the league table.
| 1 | Grimsby | 7 | 13 | 13.7 | -0.7 | 1.96 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shrewsbury | 7 | 7 | 12.7 | -5.7 | 1.81 | 18 |
| 3 | Barnet | 7 | 15 | 12.0 | +3.0 | 1.71 | 1 |
| 4 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 12 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 1.71 | 3 |
| 5 | Walsall | 7 | 13 | 11.7 | +1.3 | 1.68 | 5 |
| 6 | Rotherham | 7 | 9 | 11.7 | -2.7 | 1.67 | 13 |
| 7 | York | 7 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.3 | 1.61 | 4 |
| 8 | Oldham | 7 | 7 | 11.1 | -4.1 | 1.59 | 20 |
| 9 | Exeter City | 7 | 6 | 10.6 | -4.6 | 1.52 | 21 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 6 | 8 | 10.2 | -2.2 | 1.70 | 11 |
| 11 | Port Vale | 7 | 5 | 9.8 | -4.8 | 1.40 | 23 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 7 | 12 | 9.3 | +2.7 | 1.32 | 8 |
| 13 | Accrington ST | 7 | 6 | 9.1 | -3.1 | 1.31 | 19 |
| 14 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 10 | 9.0 | +1.0 | 1.29 | 14 |
| 15 | Cheltenham | 7 | 12 | 8.8 | +3.2 | 1.25 | 2 |
| 16 | Crawley Town | 7 | 4 | 8.6 | -4.6 | 1.23 | 24 |
| 17 | Crewe | 7 | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | 1.22 | 9 |
| 18 | Colchester | 7 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | 1.20 | 15 |
| 19 | Salford City | 6 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 | 1.37 | 7 |
| 20 | Northampton | 7 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 | 1.16 | 22 |
| 21 | Tranmere | 7 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | 1.08 | 10 |
| 22 | Swindon Town | 7 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 | 0.93 | 12 |
| 23 | Newport County | 6 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 | 0.99 | 17 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 6 | 7 | 4.2 | +2.8 | 0.70 | 16 |
Each side's goals are modelled from its xG in that match. xPts is 3 × chance of a win plus 1 × chance of a draw, added up over the season. Matches without xG for both sides are left out, and real points use the same matches.
xG table for League Two →League Two form table →League Two predictions today →
How to read this
xPts is the number of points a team would usually take from the chances it created and allowed in each match. A side that creates far better chances than its opponent gets close to 3; an even game with few chances sits near 1 for each side.
Real points and xPts drift apart because finishing, goalkeeping and a few big moments swing results over a short run of matches. A team well above its xPts is likely riding its luck; a team well below may be due a turn.
xG is one of the eight factors in our conviction score, alongside league position, form, home and away record, head-to-head, goals, injuries and fixture difficulty. How the 8-factor conviction score works.
xG is one of eight factors behind every pick on our board.