Preston v Southampton prediction: Southampton to win at 67%, the only leg on today's board

Back Southampton to win at Preston at 3pm today: on our numbers they win this about 2 times in 3 (67%), the team strength rating scores it 7.6 out of 10, and it went out on Wednesday at 1.65. 2 in 3 of our picks win (69%), and every pick we've released is on the site with its result, the losers included. It's the only pick on today's board, and next Saturday's board already has three legs on it, all 3pm kick-offs, for anyone on 14 days free, no card.

The pick: Southampton to win at Preston

Championship, kick-off 3pm today, Saturday 7th November. Southampton are 6th and Preston are 24th, eighteen places apart.

The team strength rating has Southampton on 1,626 and Preston on 1,366. That 260-point gap is what produces the 7.6. Our goals model turns the same gap into a match chance: Southampton win 67%, the draw is 19% and Preston win 14%.

Put this game on ten times and Southampton win six or seven of them. It ends level about twice, and Preston nick one. That's a leg I'm happy to have my name on, and it's the only one this weekend.

Why today is a one-leg day

The model scored twelve Championship games this weekend and Southampton are the only side to reach 7.0. Nothing else in our four divisions made the board, so it's one leg and it stays one leg.

That means no Best 4-fold today. I'd rather give you one leg the numbers rate than three more that are coin flips, so if you're building your own slip, this is the bit we'll stand behind.

What the numbers say

Since 6th October the score out of 10 comes from the team strength rating alone. The other lines below don't move the score, but they're what I check before my own money goes on, so here they are.

The shot numbers carry this one. Southampton get three times as many shots on target as Preston and double the expected goals. They score more than two a game, they haven't lost in five, and they've won three of the last five meetings. Preston are bottom of the Championship for a reason.

What we've seen of both sides this season

We've had three picks against Preston since 6th October, and all three won. Preston scored one goal across those three games and let in ten. Southampton have been on our board three times, all at home, with two wins and a draw.

Last Saturday both sides were on our board. Stoke beat Preston 2-0 at 12:30 and Southampton beat QPR 4-1 at 3pm. Today is the first time we've backed Southampton away from home under the team strength rating.

What cuts against it

The away record is the weak line. Southampton have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 2 on the road, so three of their seven away games have finished level. Our goals model puts the draw at 19% today, close to 1 in 5 on its own, and a Southampton draw has cost us before. They were the strongest leg in our 17th October 4-fold, a 74% win chance, and drew 0-0 with Bolton.

The injury line is the lowest score on the sheet at 4.5. Southampton have six players missing, and Preston have eleven. I'd still rather be on the side with the better numbers, but a long absence list can flatten a team on the road, and that's the risk I can see.

Where this sits in the acca

There's no Best 4-fold today, so there's no 4-fold chance to quote. If you add legs to Southampton yourself, each one roughly halves your chance of landing, and a leg that only wins half the time halves it exactly. That's why our 4-fold is built from the top four legs the numbers rate, all at 3pm, and why we don't build one when there aren't four.

Five Best 4-folds have settled since we went acca first on 6th October. All five went 3 from 4, so the 4-fold record is 0 landed from 5. In testing (2021 to 2026) the top four on a Saturday landed on about 1 Saturday in 5, between 21% and 24%. Five near misses in a row hurts, and it's on the results page the same as the winners.

Next Saturday is 14th November. Three legs joined that board at 10 this morning, all of them 3pm kick-offs. A 4-fold needs four, and more legs can join later in the week as each fixture's numbers become final. The three already on the board are for members, and so is the 4-fold once it's complete.

The record

Across every pick we've released, 2 in 3 of our picks win (69%). Every pick, price and result is on /results, draws and defeats included. Tipsters bury the ones that lose, and we publish every one. Southampton's result goes on the results page once it's settled.

14 days free, no card: see next Saturday's board.